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Cheltenham Ante-Post Betting: All change for the Champion Hurdle
/ Wayne Bailey / 17 November 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet
Hurricane Fly's defeat pushes Binocular to the top of the market, with Solwhit next in line...
It's not the first time he's found himself at the top of a Champion Hurdle market, but Nicky Henderson's Binocular has been pushed to the top of the betting for Cheltenham 2010 following some surprise results in Ireland over the weekend.
The wife tells me that self praise is no praise, but I suggested on Thursday that Hurricane Fly was worth laying in the Morgiana, and my assertion proved correct as Solwhit quickened up in a couple of strides and powered home for a two-and-a-half length victory over Muirhead. Hype had ruled the heads in the betting ring at Punchestown, and on bare form, there was no way the Mullins horse should have been priced [1.75].
Indeed, the Timeform adjusted ratings for the day had Solwhit 5lbs clear of the field which was spot on, but punters were having none of it and the usual rumours were going around Kildare that Hurricane Fly was doing somersaults at home, despite warnings from his trainer that some animals were behind in training.
We've been here before with Hurricane Fly and he proved frustrating in the ante-post markets last season eventually skipping Cheltenham due to injury. Sunday's defeat has seen his price drift from [4.4] to [6.8] which is not massive - but it does leave him sitting behind Binocular and Solwhit at [4.7] and [5.8] respectively.
But then again, it's not the first time we've been here with Binocular either, and the horse considered banker material by many in March could only manage third at the Cotswolds - leaving more than a few festival betting pots empty by the Tuesday evening!
There's no doubt that Hurricane Fly has ability, but I'm getting uneasy about him and I reckon he could be a little bit complicated. On his facebook page, Willie Mullins said that some of his horses needed the run and that Hurricane Fly came out of the race well so hopefully it's just a minor blip. But I think it's best to play the waiting game here and his next race should prove revealing provided there are no injury or fitness concerns.
Solwhit makes some appeal at his current price when you consider the fact that he's now finished ahead of Hurricane Fly, Punjabi, Jered, Sizing Europe, Quevega and Muirhead on various occasions. Judging by how well he powered home in Ireland, he may be able to handle the Cheltenham hill better than most and an all form available, he's my current fancy. I've seen this horse in the flesh a few times out racing in Ireland and while he isn't the biggest horse in the world, the gelding has a presence about him.
Trainer Charles Byrnes has plenty of options but the Fighting Fifth could prove a lucrative starting point:
"There is a £1M bonus up for grabs if he won at Newcastle, Kempton at Christmas - and the Champion Hurdle. That is very tempting and I'd say the Newcastle race looks likely at the minute...If he won at Newcastle on November 28, he'll then head to Kempton at Christmas and if he didn't, he'll go to Leopardstown at Christmas time."
But I can't sign off without giving Celestial Halo a mention. Beaten by a neck by Punjabi in the 2009 Champion Hurdle, the seven-year-old disappointed in the John Smith's Aintree Hurdle back in April. However, he bounced back to form at Wincanton and that performance has pushed his price into [8.6]. He's still in with a shout and it will be interesting to see what route he takes along the way.
Punjabi was last seen when beaten by Solwhit in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown festival in May.
As of Tuesday November 17, the 2010 Champion Hurdle odds on Betfair are as follows:
Binocular: [4.7]
Solwhit: [5.8]
Hurricane Fly: [6.8]
Celestial Halo: [8.6]
Punjabi: [15.0]
Zaynar: [17.0]
The rest of the field are priced above [20.0]
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