Cheltenham 2010: Festival doubles and trebles

/ Wayne Bailey / 11 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey takes a look at the Festival multiples on Betfair where punters can back or lay their Bankers and Bismarks in doubles and trebles...

A few years back, I read a book called 'Against The Crowd' by professional punter Alan Potts in which he explains that you must move away from the sheep mentality if you want to get an edge in this game. I'd generally agree with those sentiments but I must admit, it can be lonely going against the crowd at times - and when I told the lads down in the local that I was opposing Master Minded at the Cheltenham Festival this year, I found myself supporter-less!

At the moment, there are four odds-on Festival horses and a very good case can be made for each (Dunguib, Master Minded, Big Bucks and Kauto Star) in their respective races. But backing odds-on at Cheltenham can be a tricky business and don't forget that Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss were considered 'good things' last year yet both were beaten; indeed, I had a significant bet on Voy Por that year and watching the replays are still painful.

Betfair allow you to back or lay the multiples and this year's options are:

* Big Bucks/Master Minded/Dunguib
* Big Bucks/Denman/Dunguib
* Big Bucks/Kauto Star/Dunguib
* Big Bucks/Master Minded/Denman
* Big Bucks/Master Minded/Kauto Star
* Big Bucks/Denman
* Big Bucks/Kauto Star
* Big Bucks/Master Minded
* Dunguib/Big Bucks
* Dunguib/Denman
* Dunguib/Kauto Star
* Dunguib/Master Minded
* Master Minded/Kauto Star
* Master Minded/Denman

I'm sure that readers already have their own bankers and Bismark's at this stage, but here's two multiples that have caught my eye:

Master Minded/Kauto Star
Master Minded is the weakest link here and I'm going to lay this double. Yes, he's by far the best horse in the race and yes, he looked superb last-time out, but even his staunchest fans would agree that he's not as consistent as we'd like. An injured rib was to blame for his defeat in the Connaught Chase in December which is fair enough but let's face it, his previous two races in the Kerrygold Champion Chase and the Queen Mother Champion Chase were not as impressive as before, even though he won both. In my eyes, he looked a horse in decline until last-time at Newbury where he was awesome before a blunder at the last. Ruby blames himself but it's still a chink in the seven-year-old's armour.

He's the best horse in the race by a country mile and is definitely the most likely winner - but he does have his off days and for that reason, I'm going to oppose.

I've huge respect for Kauto Star but I will admit that I admire him rather begrudgingly. When Sea The Stars won the Arc, a lot of those that had opposed him all along eventually admitted that he was a true superstar, even though some did so with gritted teeth. I've had a similar relationship with Kauto; I was a Denman supporter from the start but rather foolishly, I changed my mind at the last minute the year he won the Gold Cup and backed Kauto Star costing me quite a bit of money.

I opposed Kauto last year and got stung yet again. Kauto has looked pretty awesome this season and is the strongest part of the bet from a backers perspective. He will probably win another Gold Cup but I still feel the short priced double with Master Minded is worth laying. If I'm correct on Master Minded, I can then decide on Friday if I want to go and back Kauto.

Dunguib/Big Buck's
This is a back bet for me. The Philip Fenton trained seven-year-old is another one that polarises opinion but I was watching replays of his Cheltenham and Punchestown wins (he was later disqualified at Punchestown) and they sure were impressive. He's won his latest four starts over timber and we've yet to see him break a sweat. However, it's fair to say that he blundered though a couple of hurdles at Leopardstown last time and the case against the gelding is gaining momentum. In my view, he looked bored early on at Leopardstown and he took his mind off the job which made him a little sloppy. If you watch the race again, you will see him perk up coming around the bend and from there to the post, he was perfect. If my hunch is correct, a fast pace against some decent opposition should actually help, rather than hinder his chances.

There's no need for a big write up on Big Buck's - he's simply fantastic. It would be extremely hard to find any faults in his latest few races and even though he can idle a little, his form looks rock solid.

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