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Betting Challenge Week 14: Can our man unravel the Paddy Power Gold Cup?
/ Jack Houghton / 14 November 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet
Jack Houghton attempts to launch himself back into profitability with a stab at the big one at Cheltenham
After the nonsense of last week's Breeders' Cup (when I start writing about it next year, can someone stop me and tell me it's a bad idea?) the Betting Challenge bank has tiptoed back into unprofitability. True, a Labour victory up in Glasgow has shored things up a little but, nonetheless, an £11 deficit is there for all to see. Some magic is required.
After an, what is now annual, enforced sabbatical from day-to-day racing punting at around this time of year, I'm back and the juices are flowing: I've figured out the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Or at least I thought I had.
You see, Hold Em should beat Poquelin. He's eight pounds better off than when they last met and only needs to make up a couple of lengths. According to the handicap figures I've pilfered from a friend, that looks the best piece of recent form on offer. It was on fast ground though; not the bog they'll be sludging through today. And neither of them have much to smile about when it comes to soft ground performances. Maybe not Hold Em then.
Three Mirrors has put up two monster clock performances when twice going close at this track in the last 12 months, but he has been woeful in two starts this season, so what are we to make of that? He's had his wind done, and gone down six pounds in the handicap. Is this a masterful bit of "timing" from trainer Ferdy Murphy, or just a horse in decline? He should like the ground. Ooh, I just don't know.
Il Duce is another with an impressive back catalogue according to the watch, but that was when the horse was with Alan King. This small stable isn't going to be getting it right with him first time, are they?
Tatenen is the next best in on my speed ratings, and is second-best on those stolen handicap ratings. He goes well on soft and, what's this, Timeform rate him a five-star chance on the free race-card next to the Betfair market. Here we go, fill yer boots. My wife's just reminded me though: his Punchestown run wasn't up to much. He looked like an electrified hare that day. Is that why Walsh has picked the inferior-on-form stablemate?
Hang on, I'm looking at this the wrong way. What we need is a good old fashioned Irish gamble to support. Enter Tranquil Sea. Goes well on soft and heavy, won a Grade Three last time out, and no one knows how to get one ready quite like Edward O'Grady. And hang on there again, if you only look at speed ratings achieved in heavy ground, Tranquil Sea is top.
If you ignore According To Pete and Northern Alliance that is. And oh bugger, Northern Alliance is trained by that AJ Martin character. Now he IS a trainer who knows how to get one ready for a big race. The horse has gone up six pounds since he was fourth here at the Festival though, so maybe this isn't the big race they have in mind? As for According To Pete, he ran dismally on the flat in a couple of warm-ups and we'd be taking it on faith that he'll be ready for this.
The last two to have any sort of chance are Chapoturgeon and Ballyfitz, but the former is too high in the weights and the latter has a dreadful soft ground record.
What I'm reasonably sure of is this: one of the ten horses I've mentioned above should win it. Eeny-meeny-miney-moe... I'm having £3 on Three Mirrors in the win and place markets at Betfair SP, and the same on Tatenen.
This week's bets:
£3 BACK Three Mirrors at Betfair SP in Paddy Power Gold Cup Win market.
£3 BACK Three Mirrors at Betfair SP in Paddy Power Gold Cup Place market.
£3 BACK Tatenen at Betfair SP in Paddy Power Gold Cup Win market.
£3 BACK Tatenen at Betfair SP in Paddy Power Gold Cup Place market.
