Betfair Festival Blog Day Four: Fear and self-loathing in the Cotswolds...

/ Robin Keck / 13 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's been a rollercoaster of winners, losers and plenty of Guinness, but finally Robin Keck has reached day four. So how doesour Betfair blogger intend to finish the Festival? Whichever way he's going out fightin'.

Whoever added the fourth day to the festival was very cruel. My body is close to collapse and I'm typing this in a dark hotel room as I can't face daylight. Please god let me go home.

The Comic Relief slogan for today is "do something funny with your money" but I'm keener to do something a bit more serious by landing a right touch in the Gold Cup. To get with the spirit of the day I will do a placepot for Comic Relief so hopefully that will oblige.

Let's start with the big one where Kauto is undeniably poor value. I'm a huge believer in betting being led by following a horses preference to go right- or left-handed as the market doesn't seem to factor this is in sufficiently. Kauto is one of the true greats but his heart is in south-west London not Gloucestershire and his record of one win going left handed out of five since the 2007 Gold Cup tells the story.

My Betfair Editor, Joe Dyer, thinks he's a good thing but I'll lay him (so to speak) all day at [3.1].

Using the same logic I should be thinking about Denman as he loves it this way round and he really could find his form again. Whilst I share the fear his best days are behind him, if he's travelling well in front after a few fences I will back him in-running at a much lower price

The pre-race place value lies with Neptune Collonges who is an ultra-consistent high class horse with placed Gold Cup form from last year. Anything above [2.2] is great value and whilst there are plenty of very good horses in the field, the front of the market is very fragile and the brave layers won't be able to get this one out of the frame.

The only other pre-race bet that really catches my eye is to lay Pride of Dulcote for a place in the Albert Bartlett. He will surely trade short as the Ruby/Nicholls combination are red hot and he could be anything. In the long run though you will make money opposing the 'could be anything' horses (especially from leading stables) and he's unproven at this level.

I'll be keeping a close eye on Penn Da Benn in the 'Martin Pipe' who I hope will be cruising at the bottom of the hill. He has a lot of ability but I suspect he'll hang all over the place up the hill and I'll lay him in running for a win and place. Just watch the tape of his last race at Wincanton (when I'd backed him and nearly had a hernia) and then join the party. Note to Betfair - phone punters need to be able to set up their in-running bets pre-race and the automatic cancellation is a pain.

Let's get this done today so we can all get back to some proper punting opportunities on the all-weather!!