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Which trainers can engineer success for a horse returning from an absence?

Wayne Bailey considers when to bet on a horse returning to the track after an absence...

It was William Shakespeare, who coined the phrase...

"To be, or not to be: that is the question"

That phrase came from Hamlet, which has become the most quoted work in the English language. By throwing in a couple of letters, we can adapt the phrase to represent the dilemma Betfair punter faces when presented with a horse that has not ran in a few months:

"To bet, or not to bet: that is the question"

Ok, so I'm no Shakespeare, but whether to bet or not on a horse that hasn't ran recently is certainly a tricky issue, and just like Shakespeare's plays, it often ends in tragedy.

So when should you back, or indeed lay a horse that hasn't ran in a few months? I checked it out, and it seems that the key factor here is who trains the horse. Some trainers seem to have their horse fit and ready for its comeback whereas others can't seem to strike unless the horse has had a recent run.

• For practical purposes, I define a recent run as being within the past three months

I also excluded horses that have moved to a new yard since their last race, as this would skew the results. My findings show that very stark differences exist between training regimes at each yard.

On the backing side, there are a number of trainers to note if their horse hasn't ran recently:

P F Nicholls
Nicholls does well overall with horses that have not run recently but particularly excels in chases. His results from 2000-2007 are:
Bets: 434
Wins: 127
Strike rate: 29.3 per cent
Return to SP: 115.8 per cent
Profit to £100 stakes: £6,866

W Haggas
The earlier days were hit and miss for Haggas, but he seems to have mastered such horses and has shown a consistent win level since 2004. The results of backing Haggas' horses that have not ran in three months (since 2004) are:
Bets: 147
Wins: 39
Strike rate: 26.5 per cent
Return to SP: 139.6 per cent
Profit to £100 stakes: £5,827

M A Jarvis
When it comes to Jarvis, it pays to watch the market for any money. Focusing on his horse if it's in the top three in the betting from 2000-2007 produced:
Bets: 144
Wins: 36
Strike rate: 25 per cent
Return to SP: 105.6 per cent
Profit to £100 stakes: £810

M Johnston
Wile Johnston shows a healthy profit overall, focusing on the shorter distances (1m 3f or less) can improve our return significantly. The results since 2000 are:
Bets: 434
Wins: 79
Strike rate: 18.2 per cent
Return to SP: 136.9 per cent
Profit to £100 stakes: £16,021

It's not all about backing however. As mentioned, some trainers have a dismal record with horses that have not run recently. There are a number of trainers who have not had a single winner in the past seven years, so there are plenty of laying opportunities out there:

JS Wainwright
Bets: 174
Wins: 0

J Balding
Bets: 106
Wins: 0

B Rothwell
Bets: 101
Wins: 0

J Bridger
Bets: 101
Wins: 0

Similarly, all of the following trainers have had more than 100 runners, but only found the winners' enclosure on one solitary occasion in the past seven years, so should also be considered for laying purposes:

• Mrs P Dutfield
• JR Weymes
• J Hetherton
• S Bowring

So next time you see a horse that hasn't run recently, don't be afraid of a bet. While the horse may seem like an unknown quantity, the trainers record is there for all to see, and can point the way out of the maze.

* If you would like to see the full results for any particular trainer that is not listed above, simply post a comment and we'll provide a comprehensive breakdown.

11 December 2007 / About Wayne Bailey

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