Betting Strategy / Robin Keck / 10 August 2009 / Leave a comment

Robin is pleasantly surprised to discover that his slimmed down stable has made a net profit this week.

"Stuart Williams is the modern Barney Curley and I love the intrigue that surrounds his entries as long as the tactics stay within the legal boundaries."

Let's get the bad news over with and start with that clever so and so, Stuart Williams.

After his stable endured a quiet spell for the last three weeks he landed a lovely touch with Straboe at Yarmouth which automatically cuts him from my cold list. He found bundles of improvement for the drop to a sprinting trip and off a platers mark they never saw which way he went (another funny expression that one...I imagine the other horses know exactly where he went..Usiah Bolt would put me away by around 40 metres but I'm near certain I could tell you where he went in my post race interviews).

Turning to more important matters, do you think it's possible that this trainer dupes the market (well me anyway) into believing his stable is cold by running the horses he thinks are unlikely to win before running his 'touch' horse? I'm not suggesting skulduggery... Quite the opposite in fact - I think that this is a phenomenal skill and I'll be watching with a keen eye the next time his stable goes quiet before a flood of money comes in for one of his runners. He's the modern Barney Curley for me and I love the intrigue that surrounds their entries as long as the tactics stay within the legal boundaries.

Having doubled stakes on Paul Green's in-form string I was disappointed that his eight runners all failed to oblige this week. Two or three went close though and I'm still confident that this stable will have more success soon. I'll return to normal stakes as this isn't a potential "stable cat winning" scenario.

Let's turn to the wonderful Ruth Carr who saved my bacon this week. Amazing Blue Sky, Redwater River and Raccoon all obliged at [11.5], [8.12] and [17.0] BSP respectively and returned a much needed £123.10 net profit to my £5 level stakes. I've been looking at her winners more closely and the theme seems to be her ability to eke out further improvement from horses that appear to be fully exposed.

The wonderfully consistent Raccoon has been in the first three for 10 out of his 11 races this season so how this front runner could be hiding anything from the handicapper is a mystery. The only shame of the story is that as the trainer is female she will create more headlines than an equivalent male trainer which will eventually suck the value of out of the market. No political implication meant here... Just a crude observation.

I confess I don't know an awful lot about Ronnie Barr but after five winners from his last 11 runners it's time for me to gen up. Winning BSP's of 13.8, 38, 9.71, 16.03 and 8.64 suggest the market hasn't gone overboard yet so he's on the hot list. Michael Dods has been in fine form but the handicapper seems to have a grip on them now and he's in the cold corner.

Total Starting Bank = £250.00
Closing Bank after Week Ten = £299.82
Week Eleven Result = + £15.10
Closing Bank = £ 314.92

Tags: Horseracing betting, Robin Keck, Stable Form, Stuart Williams