Betting Strategy / Robin Keck / 12 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Our blogger had a tough week with the betting bank taking a knock, can he recover with some new names on the hot and cold lists?

" I'm adding Stuart Kittow to the hot list although I'd admit this is a hunch with, as yet, little evidence. He'd been a cold trainer for some time before Dove Cottage romped him six days ago at Folkestone and since then has had Our Piccadilly go close at a decent price at Lingfield."

I mentioned last week that Simon Dow's recent good form was becoming worryingly visible to those punters with even a passive interest in stable form. Despite four losers this week I'm still pretty sure his string remain in form but the market knows it and it's time for him to go.

Ronnie Barr is a different kettle of fish (origin of saying anyone?) as his two runners Strensall and Amalfi Coast both came second this week at BSP [13.94] and [7.60] after trading at an in-running [1.40] and [1.34] respectively. It didn't help the column's coffers but I'm reassured there remains plenty of value in his runners and I wouldn't put anyone off backing them blind in the place market as well.

Not sure what to do with Kim Bailey who after form figures of 1171 including winning BSP's of [5.51], [25.0] and [9.33] had a poor week including two well stuffed favourites. Pugilist offered some encouragement by coming second at BSP [9.67] at Bangor on Saturday so I'm going to keep the faith for one more week. My instinct at this stage is to lay his horses that have already won but back his seasonal debutants but I won't confuse the column's rules and we remain a blind backer.

As for next week, I'm adding Stuart Kittow to the hot list although I'd admit this is a hunch with, as yet, little evidence. He'd been a cold trainer for some time before Dove Cottage romped him six days ago at Folkestone and since then has had Our Piccadilly go close at a decent price at Lingfield. I have a clear mental image of seeing his name pop up next to a 33-1 winner in the next week and will be following him pretty blind to see whether I'm right. I could wait for another runner to go in before I do this but naturally that will take away the value and my betting antennae is twitching like crazy that I've caught this one just right.

I'm bravely adding that wonderful upstart Tim Vaughan to my cold list this week. The world and his dog know his success with improving the horses he's been picking up from other trainers but his runners all ran badly at the weekend and I'm hoping there is a bit of juice for the layers this week. He'll soon sack himself from the list with a winner but I may be able to get a little row of unplaced horses below my BSP [10.0] threshold before then and I'll be backing this call with my real money too.

Good luck one and all.

Total Starting Bank = £250.00
Closing Bank after Week 19 = £710.77
Week 20 Result = - £45.00
Closing Bank = £665.77

Tags: Kim Bailey, Ronnie Barr, Simon Dow, Stable Form, Stuart Kittow, Tim Vaughan