Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 30 October 2007 / 3 Comments

Irish racing expert Wayne Bailey has more punting pointers for you...

At one time, it was all so simple....

In 1966, author Robert A. Heinlein coined the phrase "There aint no such thing as a free lunch" in his best-selling sci-fi book 'The Moon Is A Harsh Place'.

It's obvious that Heinlein wasn't a horseracing fan, because up until the sixties, there was indeed, such thing as a free lunch. Ok, perhaps not exactly a free lunch, but a lunch at the bookmakers' expense, which was even better.

Back then, for clued-in punters, following a very simple approach could make a regular income. All one needed to make some money was the day's racecard!

All those decades ago, someone, somewhere, copped on to the fact that National Hunt horses that had won last time out, and were making a very quick return to the track were winning an exceptional amount of races. Around forty per cent, in fact. For a number of years, backing such horses provided an easy income until the 'system' became a victim of its own success. Word got out, and bookies started adjusting the prices of such horses. They were sick of paying for punters' lunches.

Times have changed, and such simple approaches rarely have any value nowadays. This is partly because of a huge increase in racing coverage, racing information, and racing journalism. A simple system, once published in the mainstream racing press, can be destroyed literally overnight. As soon as layers become aware of what's going on, they adjust their prices accordingly.

Compared to today, in the 1960s, horseracing got little mention in the mainstream media, and it took some time for bookies to figure out why certain punters were winning consistently.

In some ways, it's become even more difficult for the backer to make money nowadays. With dedicated websites, racing newspapers, and an embarrassment of information about each horse available, one would imagine that finding winners would be a relatively easy task, yet some punters are still finding it hard to keep their head above water.

The problem is the fact that the layers also have access to such information, so the backer must try even harder to keep one step ahead.

So can a simple approach to betting work in the 21st century?

I decided to re-visit the old National Hunt system that paid for many a punter's lunch up until the 1960s to see if it can be revived. With a few extra variables thrown in, we may be able to get a few free lunches ourselves in the 2007/2008 season.

Horses that won last time out are a good starting point for any backer as the horse obviously has ability. Fitness is another key to success, and a horse returning to the track after less than a week off has clearly been deemed fit enough to do so by the trainer. As mentioned, up until the 60s, this approach would have made profit, but nowadays, we must also consider other variables in order to get an edge.

I analysed the results of all National Hunt races from 2000-2007 using the above criteria. I found that by simply adding a few new 'rules', we may indeed be able to keep the spirit of the 'sixties system' alive!

Horses that won last time out: This is the cornerstone of the system. We only want to back horses that have proven ability, and what better proof is there than a recent win.

Days since last race: Horses that ran in the past five days were the most reliable. The longer the horse took to return after a win, the less consistent the results became.

Number of runners: This is a no-brainer, but smaller fields work best as they give our horse a better chance of winning from the outset. Fields of 11 or fewer horses proved the most consistent.

So to summarise...

• National Hunt (Jump) racing only
• Horse won last time out
• Horse last ran five days ago or less
• Race has eleven runners or less

Backing every horse that matched the above criteria would have produced 151 winners from 376 bets over the past seven years, which represents a 40.2 per cent strike rate. The profit to SP was £4,152 (to £100 stakes) and I'd estimate that profit to be in the region of £7,000 using Betfair prices. The longest sequence of losers in a row was 10, but backers can take heart as it once had six winners in a row.

Unsurprisingly, the jockey that proved the most successful was one A.P. McCoy with a 50 per cent strike rate, and the most successful trainer was P.F. Nicholls who realised a 56 per cent strike rate. On a cautionary note, there were two losing years (2002-2003), which provided a small loss for the backer. I haven't quite figured out why these years under performed, but its proof that nothing is guaranteed when it comes to racing and betting.

So is there still such thing as a free lunch? Apparently there is, but just keep it for yourself!

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Tags: Betting Strategy, National Hunt Betting