Betfair Official Blog

Why backing favourites at Kelso is better than Kempton...

Wayne Bailey has looked into the science of punting on the jolly - with some interesting results

On a cold Monday evening as the sky turned to dusk, a steady stream of Mercedes cars entered the Curragh racecourse. As cash-strapped punters squeezed into overcrowded buses to make their way home, the only tight squeeze the bookmakers were having was trying to close their brimming satchels. With everything safely packed away in his Merc, I overheard one well-known layer give a shout of delight to his colleague: "What a day! ... I love this place!"

And why wouldn't he? With disgracefully high over-rounds of up to 166 per cent on races yesterday, the bookies certainly weren't having beans on toast for dinner last night. For punters, it was an unqualified disaster, with just one favourite (Age Of Chivalry) finding herself in the winner's enclosure, provided by the formidable duo of John Oxx and Mick Kinnane. The odds however, were tight at 5/4 (2.25). Not one other favourite came close for the rest of the day.

Digesting the results on my way home, I wondered how many of the punters that were getting stuck into each favourite were aware that significantly less favourites win at the Curragh, when compared to the national average.

Judging by the glum faces, not a lot.

In Ireland, you can expect favourites to have a 35% chance of winning overall. At the Curragh, however, just over 30% of the favourites end up taking the prize money. This is a significant difference, and one of the reasons the bookmakers were driving home in Mercedes!

It's a similar story in Britain. Certain tracks consistently provide plenty of winning favourites, while others leave the favourite backer scratching his head.

For example, backing favourites at Scotland's Kelso track will give you a 37.8% chance of a payout overall, while down in Cumbria, favourite backers at Cartmel can expect to win only 29.7% of their bets.

So why are some tracks far better for the favourite backers' wallet than others? The reasons are varied. Some tracks have difficult hills or fences, significant draw biases or drainage problems ... the list goes on.

While we can't tell the future, the one thing the sensible punter does have on his side is the past - in the shape of results and form.

Track trends can be broken down even further, and the type of race involved can also have a huge effect on the favourite's chances of winning. With this idea in mind, I decided to analyse the top five courses in Britain that show the highest percentage of winning favourites (2000-2007)...

Track: Kelso

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.8%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in non-handicap hurdles would have produced 81 winners from 161 bets (50.3% strike rate), and a profit of £1,206 to SP using £100 per bet
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in handicap chases shows a 26.9% strike rate and a loss of £2,282 to SP using £100 per bet.

Conclusion: Back the favourite in non-handicap hurdles. Avoid/lay the favourite in handicap chases.

Wincanton

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.6%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in non-handicap chases would have produced 57 winners from 109 bets (52.3 percent strike rate), and a profit of £844 to SP using £100 per bet
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in handicap hurdles shows a 22.2% strike rate and a loss of £3,567 to SP using £100 per bet

Conclusion: Back the favourite in non-handicap chases. Avoid/lay the favourite in handicap hurdles.

Exeter

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.3%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in Novice Hurdles shows a 48.7% strike rate overall. However, the results were varied from year to year, so this may be an unreliable strategy
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in handicap chases shows a 23.3% strike rate and a loss of £2,660 to SP using £100 per bet

Conclusion: Avoid/lay the favourite in handicap chases.

Fakenham

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.2%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in hunter chases would have produced 17 winners from 37 bets (45.9% strike rate), and a profit of £320 to SP using £100 per bet
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in novice handicap hurdles shows an 18.2% strike rate and a loss of £975 to SP using £100 per bet

Conclusion: Back the favourite in hunter chases. Avoid/lay the favourite in novice handicap hurdles.

Newton Abbot

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.1%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in selling hurdles would have produced 21 winners from 53 bets (39.6% strike rate), and a profit of £342 to SP using £100 per bet
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in handicap chases shows a 29.4 percent strike rate and a loss of £1,649 to SP using £100 per bet

Conclusion: Back the favourite in hunter chases. Avoid/lay the favourite in handicap chases.

Considerations:

• Trends change over time. Like all forms of gambling, there are no guarantees. The above trends are based on past results and they may not remain the same in the future.
• Course changes. You will need to keep up to date with any developments at each course. The heavy rainfalls for example, damaged Southwell earlier this year and they are currently re-laying the track. This new surface may alter the track's trends. Be sure to check for significant changes to the course on a regular basis.
• Time you place your bets - If you need to place your bets early, will the horse still be favourite just before the off? Using the morning prices may not be reliable. Some time back, I researched how many Racing Post forecast favourites actually went off as favourite come race time, and I was surprised to find that it was as low as 71%.

You may have noticed one interesting point - all of the above races are National Hunt (jumps) and not flat. Favourite backing on the flat is a tricky business.

Blindly backing favourites is not going to provide a profit long term, but by carefully selecting the tracks and races to play in however, we can put the odds in our favour. Such an approach should provide a good stream of winners, and hopefully increase our Betfair balance in the process!

* Need to know about your local track?
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