Why backing favourites at Kelso is better than Kempton...

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 23 October 2007 / 16 Comments

Wayne Bailey has looked into the science of punting on the jolly - with some interesting results

On a cold Monday evening as the sky turned to dusk, a steady stream of Mercedes cars entered the Curragh racecourse. As cash-strapped punters squeezed into overcrowded buses to make their way home, the only tight squeeze the bookmakers were having was trying to close their brimming satchels. With everything safely packed away in his Merc, I overheard one well-known layer give a shout of delight to his colleague: "What a day! ... I love this place!"

And why wouldn't he? With disgracefully high over-rounds of up to 166 per cent on races yesterday, the bookies certainly weren't having beans on toast for dinner last night. For punters, it was an unqualified disaster, with just one favourite (Age Of Chivalry) finding herself in the winner's enclosure, provided by the formidable duo of John Oxx and Mick Kinnane. The odds however, were tight at 5/4 (2.25). Not one other favourite came close for the rest of the day.

Digesting the results on my way home, I wondered how many of the punters that were getting stuck into each favourite were aware that significantly less favourites win at the Curragh, when compared to the national average.

Judging by the glum faces, not a lot.

In Ireland, you can expect favourites to have a 35% chance of winning overall. At the Curragh, however, just over 30% of the favourites end up taking the prize money. This is a significant difference, and one of the reasons the bookmakers were driving home in Mercedes!

It's a similar story in Britain. Certain tracks consistently provide plenty of winning favourites, while others leave the favourite backer scratching his head.

For example, backing favourites at Scotland's Kelso track will give you a 37.8% chance of a payout overall, while down in Cumbria, favourite backers at Cartmel can expect to win only 29.7% of their bets.

So why are some tracks far better for the favourite backers' wallet than others? The reasons are varied. Some tracks have difficult hills or fences, significant draw biases or drainage problems ... the list goes on.

While we can't tell the future, the one thing the sensible punter does have on his side is the past - in the shape of results and form.

Track trends can be broken down even further, and the type of race involved can also have a huge effect on the favourite's chances of winning. With this idea in mind, I decided to analyse the top five courses in Britain that show the highest percentage of winning favourites (2000-2007)...

Track: Kelso

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.8%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in non-handicap hurdles would have produced 81 winners from 161 bets (50.3% strike rate), and a profit of £1,206 to SP using £100 per bet
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in handicap chases shows a 26.9% strike rate and a loss of £2,282 to SP using £100 per bet.

Conclusion: Back the favourite in non-handicap hurdles. Avoid/lay the favourite in handicap chases.

Wincanton

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.6%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in non-handicap chases would have produced 57 winners from 109 bets (52.3 percent strike rate), and a profit of £844 to SP using £100 per bet
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in handicap hurdles shows a 22.2% strike rate and a loss of £3,567 to SP using £100 per bet

Conclusion: Back the favourite in non-handicap chases. Avoid/lay the favourite in handicap hurdles.

Exeter

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.3%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in Novice Hurdles shows a 48.7% strike rate overall. However, the results were varied from year to year, so this may be an unreliable strategy
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in handicap chases shows a 23.3% strike rate and a loss of £2,660 to SP using £100 per bet

Conclusion: Avoid/lay the favourite in handicap chases.

Fakenham

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.2%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in hunter chases would have produced 17 winners from 37 bets (45.9% strike rate), and a profit of £320 to SP using £100 per bet
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in novice handicap hurdles shows an 18.2% strike rate and a loss of £975 to SP using £100 per bet

Conclusion: Back the favourite in hunter chases. Avoid/lay the favourite in novice handicap hurdles.

Newton Abbot

• Overall percentage of winning favourites: 37.1%
• Notable races for favourites: Backing every favourite in selling hurdles would have produced 21 winners from 53 bets (39.6% strike rate), and a profit of £342 to SP using £100 per bet
• Worst races for favourites: Backing the favourite in handicap chases shows a 29.4 percent strike rate and a loss of £1,649 to SP using £100 per bet

Conclusion: Back the favourite in hunter chases. Avoid/lay the favourite in handicap chases.

Considerations:

• Trends change over time. Like all forms of gambling, there are no guarantees. The above trends are based on past results and they may not remain the same in the future.
• Course changes. You will need to keep up to date with any developments at each course. The heavy rainfalls for example, damaged Southwell earlier this year and they are currently re-laying the track. This new surface may alter the track's trends. Be sure to check for significant changes to the course on a regular basis.
• Time you place your bets - If you need to place your bets early, will the horse still be favourite just before the off? Using the morning prices may not be reliable. Some time back, I researched how many Racing Post forecast favourites actually went off as favourite come race time, and I was surprised to find that it was as low as 71%.

You may have noticed one interesting point - all of the above races are National Hunt (jumps) and not flat. Favourite backing on the flat is a tricky business.

Blindly backing favourites is not going to provide a profit long term, but by carefully selecting the tracks and races to play in however, we can put the odds in our favour. Such an approach should provide a good stream of winners, and hopefully increase our Betfair balance in the process!

* Need to know about your local track?
If you would like to find out the fate of the favourite at any other UK track, post a message and we will provide a comprehensive breakdown of results.

Tags: Backing Favourites, Laying Favourites

Comments (16)

thebluefrog | 30 October 2007

hi again
i would like to know the fate of the fav. in handicap chases and hurdles at all national hunt courses , what does the "subscribe to this entry" button do?
cheers
thebluefrog
Wayne Bailey | 01 November 2007

Hi Bluefrog.

If you click to subscribe to the entry, you will be informed when someone replies to your comment. Here are the results of backing every clear favourite (2000-2007) in Handicap Chases and Handicap Hurdles at each track. Hope this helps!

HANDICAP CHASES:

Track/Races/Wins/StrikeRate/Return to SP

Aintree 63 19 30.20% 120.00%
Ascot 58 19 32.80% 104.90%
Ayr 103 29 28.20% 82.30%
Bangor 104 22 21.20% 70.90%
Carlisle 94 26 27.70% 89.10%
Cartmel 37 10 27.00% 83.40%
Catterick 55 17 30.90% 103.30%
Cheltenham 116 29 25.00% 103.30%
Chepstow 115 34 29.60% 91.30%
Doncaster 50 12 24.00% 81.20%
Exeter 104 24 23.10% 73.50%
Fakenham 82 26 31.70% 96.10%
Folkestone 72 20 27.80% 100.20%
Fontwell 154 40 26.00% 80.70%
Haydock 96 26 27.10% 83.90%
Hereford 109 25 22.90% 78.20%
Hexham 85 19 22.40% 75.70%
Huntingdon 142 42 29.60% 90.60%
Kelso 104 28 26.90% 78.10%
Kempton 67 25 37.30% 133.40%
Leicester 85 20 23.50% 63.00%
Lingfield 25 6 24.00% 74.00%
Ludlow 92 24 26.10% 86.20%
Market Rasen 182 58 31.90% 98.00%
Musselburgh 45 11 24.40% 65.80%
Newbury 89 27 30.30% 105.10%
Newcastle 96 30 31.30% 96.50%
Newton Abbot 163 48 29.40% 89.60%
Perth 98 23 23.50% 73.70%
Plumpton 113 28 24.80% 72.20%
Sandown 89 16 18.00% 54.70%
Sedgefield 151 48 31.80% 96.40%
Southwell 100 31 31.00% 89.10%
Stratford 150 42 28.00% 91.80%
Taunton 76 23 30.30% 96.60%
Towcester 126 31 24.60% 77.10%
Uttoxeter 177 54 30.50% 99.60%
Warwick 87 31 35.60% 116.60%
Wetherby 136 28 20.60% 65.00%
Wincanton 149 55 36.90% 111.10%
Windsor 8 5 62.50% 192.90%
Wolverhampton 9 2 22.20% 59.70%
Worcester 110 23 20.90% 71.40%

HANDICAP HURDLES:

Track/Races/Wins/StrikeRate/Return to SP

Aintree 53 9 17.00% 60.10%
Ascot 44 8 18.20% 51.30%
Ayr 81 26 32.10% 92.20%
Bangor 109 25 22.90% 79.00%
Carlisle 55 12 21.80% 67.80%
Cartmel 28 5 17.90% 64.70%
Catterick 44 8 18.20% 58.10%
Cheltenham 105 31 29.50% 111.20%
Chepstow 90 26 28.90% 88.00%
Doncaster 42 12 28.60% 101.90%
Exeter 114 39 34.20% 100.70%
Fakenham 43 12 27.90% 95.50%
Folkestone 50 17 34.00% 99.80%
Fontwell 155 42 27.10% 91.20%
Haydock 96 29 30.20% 101.90%
Hereford 90 28 31.10% 101.30%
Hexham 94 27 28.70% 87.00%
Huntingdon 149 38 25.50% 83.10%
Kelso 112 31 27.70% 83.20%
Kempton 69 17 24.60% 86.20%
Leicester 43 9 20.90% 61.40%
Lingfield 17 3 17.60% 56.60%
Ludlow 92 20 21.70% 66.10%
Market Rasen 148 48 32.40% 110.60%
Musselburgh 59 14 23.70% 76.90%
Newbury 61 18 29.50% 113.60%
Newcastle 65 16 24.60% 72.10%
Newton Abbot 154 44 28.60% 77.90%
Perth 115 31 27.00% 85.20%
Plumpton 100 31 31.00% 96.50%
Sandown 68 16 23.50% 85.40%
Sedgefield 149 50 33.60% 108.40%
Southwell 81 22 27.20% 85.70%
Stratford 120 33 27.50% 91.10%
Taunton 93 21 22.60% 61.70%
Towcester 78 24 30.80% 91.70%
Uttoxeter 166 49 29.50% 93.80%
Warwick 89 32 36.00% 123.10%
Wetherby 128 45 35.20% 110.60%
Wincanton 136 30 22.10% 73.00%
Windsor 7 4 57.10% 205.40%
Wolverhampton 6 1 16.70% 54.20%
Worcester 121 31 25.60% 81.10%
Mopp | 11 February 2008

Hi, Could anyone please tell me what is the longest strike rate of winning favourites in an "across the card" situation in UK for the last 10 years, i.e earliest race of the day 1:10 Wolv, second race 1:20 Perth, third race 1:30 Kempton etc. I have read that the odds against getting 10 consecutive winning favourites is 1:5120 (0.02%) but that is "down the card" with all six favs winning on one day and the first four winning next day

I look forward to hearing from you

Mopp
wayne Bailey | 18 April 2008

Hi Mopp, I'm not sure if there is any data mining software that can do that. I haven't come across any . Sorry I can't be of help.
Simon Rowlands | 15 August 2008

Hi Wayne.

The % of winning favourites will be closely linked to field sizes (and other things). A 15% strike-rate in 20-runner fields is "better" than a 20% strike-rate in 8-runner fields, even before you get onto the subject of whether it is an 8/1 favourite or a 8/11 favourite.

Do you have any figures that take these factors into account?

Simon
Wayne Bailey | 05 September 2008

Hi Simon, that's true - indeed the 'winning favourite by course' angle could probably be broken down by nearly every variable under the sun - price, distance, race type, going, ratings, etc.

I have figures on each course broken down by numerous variables, but they'd be difficult to publish here due to lack of space, difficulty in publishing detailed tables, etc.

If any reader want specific data broken down in further detail, feel free to make a post on a site I co-own: www.letsbet.ie/forum

I have a stats section there, and am happy to publish any requests (it's a free site by the way, I'm not spamming!).
Peter | 23 November 2008

hi there, could you please give me details of the tracks where the favourites strike rite is very poor. (the top 5 tracks with the least strike rate for favourites over the last ten years). I look forward to hearing from you soon.
Wayne Bailey | 23 November 2008

Hi there, I don't have ten year data so I hope five years will suffice.
I'm assuming it's UK data you are after but if you would like Irish data too, let me know.

Of course, certain race types show lower win rates than others (handicaps for example).

Below is the general data and includes all race types.

FLAT/ALL WEATHER:

Track .... Bets .... Wins .... WinStrike .... Profit/Loss to £1

Southwell .... 88 .... 25 .... 28.41% .... -9.75
Ayr .... 560 .... 160 .... 28.57% .... -111.52
York .... 562 .... 164 .... 29.18% .... -28.9
Doncaster .... 541 .... 160 .... 29.57% .... -62.42
Kempton .... 233 .... 69 .... 29.61% .... -42.66

NATIONAL HUNT:

Track .... Bets .... Wins .... WinStrike .... Profit/Loss to £1

Catterick .... 250 .... 70 .... 28.00% .... -56.76
Aintree .... 250 .... 75 .... 30.00% .... -36.12
Towcester .... 512 .... 154 .... 30.08% .... -104.69
Cheltenham .... 541 .... 171 .... 31.61% .... -24.38
Cartmel .... 205 .... 66 .... 32.20% .... -19.99
Syd | 23 November 2008

Hi Wayne

In November 2007 you posted a table of winning favourites for National Hunt racing for correspondent "Bluefrog".

Do you have the same stats for UK Flat racing please?

Regards

Syd
Wayne Bailey | 23 November 2008

Hi Syd, is it how well/poorly the favourite performs broken down by course that you are after?

If it's something else, let me know. Below is how the flat favourite performed over the past five years (data includes all-weather):

Track ... Bets ... Wins ... WinStrike ... Profit/Loss to £1

Chester ... 412 ... 153 ... 37.14% ... 23.18
Musselburgh ... 605 ... 215 ... 35.54% ... 1.75
Folkestone ... 496 ... 175 ... 35.28% ... -12.28
Hamilton ... 604 ... 212 ... 35.10% ... -41.81
Leicester ... 674 ... 236 ... 35.01% ... -32.5
Nottingham ... 738 ... 252 ... 34.15% ... -33.77
Windsor ... 832 ... 284 ... 34.13% ... 8.31
Thirsk ... 517 ... 175 ... 33.85% ... -21.08
Bath ... 656 ... 221 ... 33.69% ... -7.86
Yarmouth ... 740 ... 249 ... 33.65% ... -51.59
Beverley ... 674 ... 225 ... 33.38% ... -17.18
Southwell ... 2147 ... 715 ... 33.30% ... -49.69
Sandown ... 600 ... 198 ... 33.00% ... -4.04
Haydock ... 682 ... 223 ... 32.70% ... -14.61
Catterick ... 609 ... 199 ... 32.68% ... -14.98
Pontefract ... 558 ... 182 ... 32.62% ... -30.03
Newcastle ... 544 ... 176 ... 32.35% ... -2.37
Lingfield ... 3225 ... 1040 ... 32.25% ... -135.89
Brighton ... 704 ... 226 ... 32.10% ... -55.31
Ripon ... 486 ... 153 ... 31.48% ... -63.41
Salisbury ... 530 ... 166 ... 31.32% ... -70.7
Warwick ... 483 ... 151 ... 31.26% ... -61.62
Great Leighs ... 205 ... 64 ... 31.22% ... -24.6
Goodwood ... 784 ... 244 ... 31.12% ... -9.57
Carlisle ... 309 ... 96 ... 31.07% ... -47.09
Redcar ... 632 ... 196 ... 31.01% ... -59.38
Newmarket ... 1438 ... 442 ... 30.74% ... -121.27
Wolverhampton ... 3237 ... 992 ... 30.65% ... -379.6
Newbury ... 676 ... 206 ... 30.47% ... -44.78
Chepstow ... 412 ... 125 ... 30.34% ... -37.13
Epsom ... 274 ... 82 ... 29.93% ... -4.99
Ascot ... 456 ... 136 ... 29.82% ... -29.22
Kempton ... 1427 ... 424 ... 29.71% ... -165.8
Doncaster ... 541 ... 160 ... 29.57% ... -62.42
York ... 562 ... 164 ... 29.18% ... -28.9
Ayr ... 560 ... 160 ... 28.57% ... -111.52
Jim | 21 February 2009

Do you have the breakdown of stats for the last 5 years for Flat and NH races for the following:

Number of winners per race category (e.g. Maiden Hurdle, 2yo Flat Maiden, Group 1)overall and then broken down by course?

Many thanks
Wayne Bailey | 22 February 2009

Hi Jim, don't think I'd manage to squeeze in all that info here, but get on to Adrian Massey where you can run those reports for free. Copy and paste the link below into your address bar and you will get all the options to tick. Hope this helps:

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/dbaccess.php?flat=-1&p1=ejlub2JvZHl1dQ==&p2=NWw5Wm5vcGFzc3dvcmRd&p3=MTIzNTMxNDUwMQ==
Barry | 30 June 2009

Hi, i was wondering if you knew the strike rate of the favourites by race distance, preferably the shorter distances 5f to a mile.
If you do could you give me a breakdown by distance
Cheers
Wayne Bailey | 30 June 2009

Hi Barry - here you go. The below data is UK and Irish flat only, is from 2003 onwards, and includes both handicap and non-handicap races:

Distance ... Bets ... Wins ... Strike Rate ... Profit/Loss to 1 unit

5f ... 3355 ... 1107 ... 33% ... -197.38
5½f ... 294 ... 83 ... 28.23% ... -36.58
6f ... 4337 ... 1368 ... 31.54% ... -285.65
6½f ... 105 ... 31 ... 29.52% ... 3.01
7f ... 4118 ... 1291 ... 31.35% ... -371.16
7½f ... 383 ... 129 ... 33.68% ... -37.56
1m ... 3586 ... 1113 ... 31.04% ... -328.48
Roy | 18 November 2009

hello Wayne,in nov 08 you posted a list of favs performance per course for Syd.Is that list for just handicaps or for all races?..Thanks in advance.
Wayne Bailey | 19 November 2009

Hi Roy - it's difficult to post up tables due to formatting issues.

Send me a mail to waynebaileyracing@gmail.com with your request and I'll forward the data on to you.

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