Betting Strategy / Editor / 09 August 2007 / Leave a comment

Investigating the Martingale - a system that takes strong resolve and iron will

There is a saying that gambling is the hardest way to make an easy living. The televised lifestyle of gambling and poker pros makes it look even more accessible. For those lured to these easy riches the bait is usually a "foolproof system" such as the Martingale which we'll take a look at now.

The heart of the Martingale is to double your bet with each loss until you win. Then start again. It's important that your bet has at least a 50/50 chance, that you have plenty of money, and the opportunity to bet it. This is why it doesn't work on roulette, the no. 1 killer of the Martingale. If you bet on a colour in roulette the problem is it isn't a 50/50 game. Black and red sure sound like 50/50 but those zeroes are a killer and the table limit just drives the nails in the coffin. Can the Martingale, or at least its essence, ever work?

Let's look at an example: horse racing. It certainly helps to be able to pick the right horses but we'll stick to the math on this one. We dig around the Internet and we find a page something like this one: http://www.adrianmassey.com/fav/fav1.php. We see that for all flat racing, the favourite comes in about 32 per cent of the time. Three times in ten is not 50/50. Fortunately, horse racing doesn't offer fixed odds like the roulette table so we'll try to use those odds to offset the other seven times.

Let's say I have £5,000 in the bank. Each trip to the track I want to risk up to 5 per cent to increase the bankroll by 1 per cent (aka the Steady Drip). So we'll bet as much as £250 to win £50 today. I take you now to August 5th, 2007 at Chester. Our first favourite in race one, Calistos Quest, jumps out of the gate at a starting price (SP) of 10/3. To make £50 we put down £15 and promptly throw out the slip - he came in fourth.

On to race two. Our horse is Victoria Bounty at an SP of 11/4. We now need to win £50 + £15 so our stake is £24. We go crazy as the horse leads ... until the final furlong. Our next race is Rhaam who, like the other horses, opens higher (4/1) than the SP (10/3). We now need to win a total of £89 (£50 + £15 + £24). Our bet at 10/3 is £27. We watch Rhaam chase the leaders and, at around two furlongs out, Rhaam takes over the lead and keeps the pace to win by a head. The betting account goes to £5,051 and we go to the pub.

This concept of chasing losses is still a risky proposition. But you can see that, with the right conditions, there may be another approach that can work. This is just an example and you are well advised to test it for yourself. But you need to have an opportunity in the mathematical probabilities, your bankroll, and with the wagering limits, to make it work. With any strategy you use, you must understand and be comfortable riding it out. It is no coincidence that the blended rate of the races above come out to a bit better than 3/1, nicely offsetting our winning 1 in 3 which is our textbook target based on Mr. Massey's calculations.

It's certainly a powerful lure. Make sure you're the angler, and not the fish. Good luck!

Tags: betting strategy, Chester, Martingale system