Betting Strategy / Jack Houghton / 26 February 2010 / Leave a comment

With his back against the wall courtesy of a some poor racing bets and Ireland's failures in the Six Nations, Jack Houghton is coming out of his corner fighting and turning his attentions to the Racing Post Chase this weekend.

"The problem with knowing for certain that one of five horses will win the Racing Post Chase is that my certainty stops with the five. Which one of the five will actually win is a mystery to me. And this is causing vexation. Much vexation."

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

* * *

The Racing Post Chase can only be won by one of five horses. It's useful that I know this as, a hundred down in the Betting Challenge -- with the likelihood of further losses unless Ireland pull out some miracle Six Nations' win -- I need to back a few winners; preferably at big prices.

The problem with knowing for certain that one of five horses will win the Racing Post Chase is that my certainty stops with the five. Which one of the five will actually win is a mystery to me. And this is causing vexation. Much vexation. How do I take these five and construct the most profitable scenario?

First off, it's probably worth explaining how I came to know the Kempton Five. Well, a spreadsheet told me. And not just any old spreadsheet, but a spreadsheet with formulas and buttons and macros and various shadings to draw various attentions to the omniscient numbers the spreadsheet creates. Given the correct inputs and enough time, this spreadsheet could figure out the eternal question -- so the Racing Post Chase hardly troubled it.

The upshot of its machinations is the knowledge that only Oedipe, Private Be, Fistral Beach, Atouchbetweenacara and Piraya can win Saturday's showpiece. In fact, the spreadsheet reckons, that's the order they'll finish in.

The key piece of form driving the numbers for Oedipe is his victory at Aintree back in 2008. He was immense that day, recording a fast time and being put up 12lbs in the handicap as a result. It's taken a while of not being able to reproduce that form to see the horse back at a similar mark and, after an encouraging enough comeback run behind Monkerhostin, it's clear why the spreadsheet likes him so much (it has him 6lbs clear). The Betting Challenge is having £20 on at Betfair SP.

Next up is Private Be. Based on its third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and its defeat of Nacarat at Exeter, the spreadsheet has it second-in, 4lbs clear of the third. Those bits of form are both from 2008 as well. Are you getting the impression the spreadsheet has a penchant for races from that year? Me too, but now isn't the time to start questioning things -- the spreadsheet hasn't let me down in the past; so why should it now? Come to think of it, I haven't used this spreadsheet before. Nonetheless, I'm having £20 on at Betfair SP.

We then have a tranche of three others given an equal chance, themselves all 3lbs clear and upwards of the rest of the field. Fistral Beach put up a huge performance on the clock when winning at Kempton last time and is still relatively unexposed. I'm having £15 on him at Betfair SP.

Atouchbetweenacara was mightily impressive when winning at Cheltenham last April and Piraya put up a striking clock performance when winning at Warwick last time. The Betting Challenge is having £10 on each at Betfair SP.

Now having already invested £75 of a rapidly diminishing bank, you might think it wise to find some other baskets in which to place the odd egg. But you'd be wrong. You see, the loudest noise coming from the spreadsheet says that Nacarat will be nowhere -- it rates him at not far off a stone below our third-placed trio. So to finish things off -- and yes, I'm well aware it might finish me off -- I'm laying Nacarat for a place for £80 at Betfair SP.

I can't lose, the spreadsheet says so.

This week's bets:
£20 BACK Oedipe at Betfair SP in Racing Post Chase.
£20 BACK Private Be at Betfair SP in Racing Post Chase.
£15 BACK Fistral Beach at Betfair SP in Racing Post Chase.
£10 BACK Atouchbetweenacara at Betfair SP in Racing Post Chase.
£10 BACK Piraya at Betfair SP in Racing Post Chase.
£80 LAY Nacarat at Betfair SP in Racing Post Chase Place Market.

Tags: Fistral Beach, Oedipe, racing bets, Racing Post Chase, racing tips