Betting Strategy / Neil Munro / 18 March 2010 / Leave a comment

Neil Munro has been watching Cheltenham but his eye-catching in-running stories come from other tracks

"Fix The Rib has been tried over hurdles seven times and only has one placed effort. Compare this to his record over the bigger fences of five wins from eight starts."

It has been a cracking week so far at Cheltenham, with some interesting in-running stories which I will dissect next week, but there have been plenty of pointers elsewhere. These are horses which are likely to never know the excitement of running at the Cheltenham Festival but sometimes the lesser lights can give us stronger opportunities to trade in-running.

Fix The Rib
Gary Moore's seven year old was put over hurdles at Taunton on March 15 to take advantage of a lenient mark but the blunt truth is he is a better chaser than hurdler. He was sent off a very short price (BSP 1.36) and traded [1.11] in-running but never truly looked like winning. When I look for horses to trade on in-running I like to research their profile, to gauge when to get involved and when not to.
Fix The Rib has been tried over hurdles seven times and only has one placed effort. Compare this to his record over the bigger fences of five wins from eight starts. He has always been held in midfield over hurdles whereas over fences he is given his head and leads the field from the front which allows us a chance to trade. Look for him over the bigger fences, over 2m to 2m2f, with Gary's son Jamie on board (Jamie is five wins from five rides when chasing) as he is a natural for backing pre-race and laying off your stake, and maybe a little bit more, in running.

Bonikos
It will be interesting to see if Bonikos is given a bit of a break after his most recent effort as there does appear to be a bit of a problem. He was sent off the 11/10 favourite for a small field beginners chase at Stratford but he had already shown a propensity to find little when asked. He travelled well, jumped confidently, but then started flashing his tail and dropped out of the race very quickly. He has now traded at 1.12 and 1.20 in-running in defeat and if he comes out in the next four weeks I would be willing to take him on in the run and low odds again.

Pontop
The seven year old doesn't have the greatest win ratio as he has only won once over hurdles in ten starts but he does have an interesting profile for in-running players. His only win came over 2m back in March at Newcastle but the profile points us to win he tries over trips around 2m4f. He tends to travel just off the pace and makes a move over the last two hurdles. So often at this point he looks the likely winner but then just fails to get home. He has traded at 2.34, 1.21 and 1.70 when defeated on his last three runs so look for him over trips around 2m4f and take him on in-running.

Charlie Smirke
Charlie Smirke broke his maiden tag after 16 attempts and before the race George Baker (the jockey) wanted to make it very clear that the four year old gelding was not un-genuine but I still have question marks about the horse. Before winning the other day he had had more seconds than an outlet shop and with the penalty I would be looking to back him pre-race and lay off your stake and more in-running at low odds. He has trades on his in-running CV of [2.04], [1.71], [2.4], [1.51] and [1.21].

Tags: Bonikos, Charlie Smirke, Fix The Rib, Pontop