Betfair Official Blog

The secret to picking winners is revealed

Darrell Williams discovers that 'lucky' Trap Three is backed up by the stats...

Working on SIS's Sports Daily programme last Saturday morning, I was finding tipping winners more difficult than usual. The fact it was Romford and Crayford providing the action made me even more frustrated as, while I find both tracks challenging (which BAGS venues aren't?), I can usually come out with my head held high. Not that I was the only tipster in trouble as the Racing Post, who I always use as a gauge to see how I'm performing, were also struggling to pick the right ones.

What quickly became noticeable was the lack of any winners from Trap One. In fact it took until the 15th race of the morning, the 12.17 Romford before the first red jacket obliged, albeit immediately followed by another Trap One winner at Crayford. All of which got me thinking back to my long held believe that the middle boxes, and especially my perennial favourite Trap Three do best on a Saturday morning. My theory derives from a believe that Saturday morning BAGS cards, when the betting shop audience comprises more 'numbers' players, are so graded as to try and produce less Trap One and Trap Six winners, given that those are the boxes most often favoured by the lucky numbers punters. Of course, that is just my view, and I doubt there's even an ounce of truth in it, but like all punters you need an angle if you're to try and stay ahead.

Being a bits of a stats wiz on the quiet, the lack of 'red' in the winners enclosure last Saturday - in all just 3 of the 28 races were won by trap one - wanted me to delve a little deeper into the figures. Statistics, of course, can tell you anything you want them to, but by looking at the last seven Saturday mornings, the figures threw up some interesting results.

Romford is the most revealing, with Trap Three responsible for 28 of the 98 winners, 25 of which have come in the last five weeks, while it's trap two that has fared least successfully with a mere 8 winners in seven weeks. Trap one has actually held its own with 19 successes. But the real jaw dropper is the consistent record of Trap Three at Romford, not just over the past couple of months, or even this year, but without exception year in year out. The white jacket has been the most successful trap this year with a strike rate of 19% (slightly higher for four bend races only), which puts it well on the way to emulating its top trap status of last year, as well as in 2005, 2004, 2003 and in 2002!

That is some record, and one which appears to have gone almost unheralded. That doesn't mean, of course, that you can win money by backing Trap Three in every race at Romford, but it's a vital piece of information when you're weighing up a race. Incidentally on the other side of the coin, trap five has been the least, or joint least performing box in each of the last five full seasons.

While Crayford has indeed struggled for red jacket winners in the past five weeks - just seven have obliged, its overall tally of 17 winners in my seven week study reads well enough, and it's been the outside boxes, five and six, that have been quietest of late, although not to any significant degree. But can you guess which trap has been 'the governor' at Crayford, with more winners than any other box in each of the last five years? Of course, it had to be didn't it; it's my old favourite Trap Three that once again leads the way!