Tiger Woods / Paul Krishnamurty / 16 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

We still don't know when Tiger will make his comeback but the whispers get ever louder and he trades at just [1.15] to play in the Masters. Now, therefore, is the time to back the world's greatest golfer to make the majors his own, says Paul Krishnamurty

So now we know. Or at least we thought we did until a few hours ago. When PGA Tour chief Tim Fincham scheduled a press conference for Monday afternoon, speculation mounted that it was to announce details of Tiger Woods' golfing return, but it actually turned out to be nothing more than a routine announcement of a new fixture.

Nevertheless, clearly those plans are at an advanced stage and next Monday's Tavistock Cup remains a very plausible, and suitably private return. The key competitive date is next Thursday's Arnold Palmer Invitational, for which Woods must enter by this Friday. Tiger has never missed this annual Bay Hill fixture, and presumably would like to keep that run going, not to mention winning it for the third straight year and seventh time overall.

It would be very bad form if the inevitable media circus were to upstage Palmer's own event, and Tiger's people are surely smart enough to avoid that potential controversy. Likewise, as Steve Stricker warned at the weekend, turning the Masters into the 'Tiger Comeback Event' would win few friends at a time when he needs them. Returning at the private, low-key Tavistock Cup would be more appropriate.

Assuming he is back by the Masters, an eventuality which has been backed down to [1.15], it will bring to a close a most frustrating period in golf and golf betting. I have absolutely no interest in Tiger's personal affairs, and apart from the fact that his absence makes tournaments more competitive, he has been sorely missed.

Moreover, the uncertainty has been disastrous for long-term golf betting. Without knowing the detailed extent of his schedule, betting on the majors becomes something of a guessing game. Prior to this scandal, I had a series of bets lined up for Tiger and had earmarked my first article of the year to advise backing him to win two and three majors respectively. The reasoning was that this year's major venues are absolutely ideal.

We know he loves Augusta, where he's won four times. The British Open is being held at St Andrews, where he won on both previous attempts by eight and five shot margins. Most importantly the US Open, normally his weakest major, is to be played at the scene of his very finest hour. Tiger's 15-shot victory in the 2000 US Open at Pebble Beach remains, for me, the ultimate sporting achievement.

The USPGA could be more problematic, as Woods only finished 24th when the event was last held at Whistling Straits. However, the whole point of backing him to win two or three majors is to develop a bankable trading position ahead of this final major. The combined current odds on those two bets pays around [6.0], so if he heads to Whistling Straits having won any of the previous three majors it would be possible to 'green up'. Ideally, he'll have won two, therefore assuring us of the full profit without laying back.

The key issue is whether he's capable of putting the last few months behind him and finding his best form. I certainly wouldn't want to get into the amateur psychology game, but really don't see why his off-course troubles should massively affect his golf. Obviously, personal problems would impact on most people, but not Tiger. This is arguably the most single-minded, driven sportsman of his generation. If he can win a US Open whilst limping around with a serious knee injury, he can pass this mental test.

From a golfing perspective, there's no doubt he can bounce back quickly. Tiger won on each seasonal debut between 2006 and 2008. Even after missing eight months and undergoing knee surgery, it took Woods all of three tournaments to win again. The setting then was Bay Hill, and wouldn't it just be typical for him to repeat the trick next week?

Recommended bets: Tiger Woods to win exactly two majors @ [7.8]
Tiger Woods to win exactly three majors @ [22.0]

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