/ Steven Rawlings / 08 February 2010 /

It was a disappointing end to the Dubai Desert Classic for Steve, as both Alvaro Quiros and Thongchai Jaidee surrendered their chances of glory....

On a dramatic last day, that saw all the leading contenders suffer with their nerves, Miguel Angel Jimenez finally won the Dubai Desert Classic, an event that had narrowly eluded him in recent years.

In the States, Steve Stricker made amends for his late stumble last year at Riviera to comfortably win the Northern Trust Open.

My Bets

A completely neutral week but a bitterly disappointing one - my main pre-event pick in Dubai, Martin Kaymer, lost by just two strokes, yet dropped five shots during the week on one hole, the ninth. I backed a number of players at value prices, ignoring market leaders Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood, both of whom I wanted to be against.

Alvaro Quiros, substantially backed at [17.0], would have been a superb result. He had the event at his mercy and traded as short as [1.58] as he lined up an eagle putt on the 13th to go clear, but his bold attempt slipped by and he missed the return. The wheels fell off in no uncertain fashion after that, but mercifully I'd layed quite a bit back at [2.4] and [1.7].

In-running pick, Thongchai Jaidee, backed at [75.0] during round one, would have been just as fine a result and he had a great chance to match Jimenez's score, but his birdie putt on the last, from no more than a few feet, never threatened the hole.

Playing in the final pairing, alongside the forlorn Quiros, Lee Westwood birdied the last to join Jimenez in a play-off. I wasn't in the best of moods, had resigned myself to a level book and thought I'd just watch the play-off, but I ended up laying Westwood a couple of times over the course of the three holes, which was some compensation at least.

I was pretty sick not to have backed Jimenez, who I've backed here a few times in the past. I couldn't have fancied him before the off though and, to be frank, I never thought he'd win again, but I'm still rueing not taking the [75.0] that was readily available after round one. I looked hard at it but didn't take the plunge.

In the States, both my pre-event picks, Phil Mickelson and Fred Couples were poor and I added first round leader Dustin Johnson at [8.2]. He made a hole in one during round two to regain the lead but fell apart in round three.

With a round to go Steve Stricker led by six shots from a host of likely chargers. I'm not a huge fan of Stricker in the mix and can well remember his implosion at last year's Bob Hope where, with the tournament at his mercy, he shot a horrific final round 77. I layed him modestly at [1.16] and sat back and waited. He was a bit shaky to begin with, his lead was reduced to just two after seven holes, and he drifted right out to somewhere close to [1.8] but, to his credit, he held his nerve and won by two from Luke Donald.

Player to Watch

Up until a few weeks ago I'd have referred to Nationwide Tour graduate, Alex Prugh, as Alex Who? but he's made an eye-catching start to his PGA Tour career. After a tied 72nd place finish in Hawaii he's had three straight top-10's. With bright starts also made by Michael Sim and Rickie Fowler, Alex hasn't exactly hit the headlines but he's clearly got some game.

Players to Swerve

If ever there was a week to remind me that there really isn't anyone who you can trust implicitly, it was this one. It's not a criticism; it's merely stating a fact. Winning isn't easy, far from it, but some players show more nerves than their cramped odds suggest they will.

In last week's de-brief I asked if we were seeing the return of 'wobbly Westy'. I think we are. Many won't agree with my assessment but he was heavily favoured in the market during the play-off where he really should have made his extra length off the tee pay on the 18th hole, but when the time came he didn't have the killer instinct. It's a harsh criticism maybe, but it's all about making it pay for me, and taking on Lee Westwood at short odds has yet again reaped rewards.

It would be quite wrong of me to dish out criticism of Lee whilst ignoring the finish of Quiros, so I won't. I was bitterly disappointed by his reaction to the three-putt on 13. He followed it with two more three-putts and completely blew his chance. Nine putts in three holes on the back nine on Sunday isn't going to get the job done and, as much as I love his cavalier approach, following this effort, if I'm on him again down the stretch I'll be pressing the lay button harder than I did this week.

What have we learnt for next year?

For in-running purposes in Dubai, the back nine is far easier than the front nine. Holes one, two and three are a gentle enough start but once you get to the par three fourth, it's a grind until you get to the par five 10th. If a player you quite like has opened up with a birdie or two it may well be worth waiting and getting on once they've negotiated the particularly treacherous ninth hole. Especially if it's Martin Kaymer!

On to this week and the Race to Dubai stops off in India for the Avantha Masters. Whilst a stronger than usual field assembles for the AT & T Pebble Beach, as top names get a feel for this year's US Open venue. I'll post a preview of both events by Wednesday morning.

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