The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 09 August 2008 /

The Punter's in-play bets have been going astray at Oakland Hills. History suggests that those at the top now will be at the top on Sunday.

It's fair to say I was wrong yesterday when I wrote that the course wasn't as hard as had been predicted. The 'Monster' is really starting to show its teeth now.

My last man standing, Phil Mickelson is still just about in touch but his putting has been woeful again. I've never seen him miss so many putts by so little and uncharacteristically his short game was also poor yesterday. He seemed to get a little frustrated again, almost understandably.

I had two bets during play yesterday, both went astray. I backed Ernie Els at [30.0] before he went on a bogey streak and Paul Goydos at [85.0], a hole before he made double bogey!

So what now? Looking back over recent years, in six of the last seven years the second round leader has gone on to win, when the Tiger didn't! So history points to the very top of the leaderboard and it makes sense, it's very hard to see anyone shooting a pair of 68's around here.

I'm not a big fan of current leader J B Holmes on -1 but I'm not a massive fan of the five players within two shots of him either and given the record of second round leaders I have simply had to back him at [13.5].

I honestly think the leaderboard has a really flimsy look about it though and my instinct tells me that the top six are all going to struggle.
It doesn't happen very often but I have let stats win over gut feel. But then [13.5] about a scenario that has occurred in six of the last seven years is a pretty persuasive price.

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