US Masters Trends: Augusta dos and don'ts...

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 March 2012 / 6

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Charl Schwartzel celebrates his historical fourth birdie in-a-row on the final hole last year

“Year after year, the man that dons the famous green jacket has putted with aplomb - only Luke Donald, who finished tied fourth, putted better than Schwartzel last year.”

Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, looks forward to the year's first major, highlighting trends to follow and pitfalls to avoid at the US Masters

Forget daffodils, snowdrops and birdsong, the Cheltenham Festival hints at the onset of spring and the US Masters announces its arrival.

Its position in the calendar isn't the only reason I await the year's first major so eagerly though. With its famous azaleas, dogwoods and perfectly manicured fairways, Augusta sure is easy on the eye and I can't be the only one who fondly remembers the pre-Sky Sports days when the US Masters was one of the few treats us golf fans got, but the real reason I've warmed to the event so much is that it's a great tournament to bet on.

The magical Masters is less than a fortnight away now, so with the Georgia venue back on my mind, here's a few Augusta Do's and Don'ts.

Do back an outsider if you fancy one. Four of the last five winners have started the week at triple-figure odds. With a superb Masters pedigree, Phil Mickelson surprised no one when he won here for the third time two years ago but very few picked out last year's victor Charl Schwartzel, nor the three that preceded Mickelson. Zach Johnson, Trevor Immelman and Angel Cabrera were all shock winners.

Don't take any notice of the no Aussie winner stat. It's true that no player from Down Under has triumphed yet but there's absolutely no reason why. Greg Norman came closest, famously blowing a six shot lead with a round to go in 1996, and Adam Scott wasn't far away last year either. He traded at a low of [1.39] before Schwartzel's birdie blitz and two fellow Aussies were also placed. Jason Day tied Scott for second and Geoff Ogilvy finished tied fourth. There are plenty of contenders from Down Under again this year and it's not a stat to give any credence to.

Do back a hole-in-one on day four. There have been seven aces in the last eight years and six have them have come on the 16th hole on Sunday. I see no reason for the organisers to end the practice of placing the pin in a favourable spot there and if you wait until the end of play on Saturday before backing Yes in the Hole-In-One market you may well get rewarded handsomely.

Don't back a debutant. Jason Day's 276 total last year was the lowest for a first-timer and a magnificent effort but other than the first two champs (Horton Smith in 1934 and Gene Sarazen a year later), Fuzzy Zoeller, back in 1979, is still the only other player to win on debut.

Do get involved in-running and do concentrate on the leaders. Schwartzel was tied 7th after round one last year and that's the furthest back any winner's been in six years after day one.

Don't back dodgy putters or poor scramblers. It's very hard to nail down exactly what constitutes the perfect Augusta type- hence the big price winners of late! Length off the tee is a distinct advantage but plenty of short hitters have won. Recent champions Zach Johnson and Mike Weir are hardly big bombers and Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O'Meara and Ben Crenshaw weren't renowned for getting it out there off the tee either. Finding the greens with regularity won't harm your cause and when you do miss them, keeping mistakes to a minimum is crucial, so excellent scrambling is key, but most important of all is putting. Year after year, the man that dons the famous green jacket has putted with aplomb - only Luke Donald, who finished tied fourth, putted better than Schwartzel last year.

Do put the radio on if you're serious about trading. It can drive you bonkers trying to watch the event on TV whilst listening to it on the radio at that same time but if you're serious about making it a profitable week, it may just be worth it.

Don't back anyone outside the final pairing on Sunday. Schwartzel benefited from Rory McIlroy's spectacular collapse last year and a Stuart Appleby stumble let in Zach Johnson in 2007 but they're the only two winners not to have started day four in the final two-ball in the last 20 years.

And finally, do enjoy the week. It's a joy from start to finish and it's very nearly here.

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Ronsk | 25 March 2012

Good stuff Steve. Difficult to argue with any of what you've said. However, I am going against the 'rookies don't win' stat this year. I've been all-over Mr Bradley for this since the turn of the year. I've piled into the 66's & 50's, simply because it was too big! He's been playing plenty of practice rounds with none other than Lefty himself, and if that doesn't help his cause, nothing will. He's the main bet, but I've dabbled with Mr Day also. He should be there or thereabouts in my view. One or two others are close to seeing a few quid of mine before too long also, but just waiting for a little while longer. Not long now fella... I simply cannot wait!!
Ronsk | 30 March 2012

Have now added Zach Johnson to my portfolio at an average of: 150. That price is simply wrong!

Am I talking to myself here???
Steven Rawlings | 30 March 2012

Sorry Ronsk. I am here!

I've been toying with backing Zach myself but haven't yet taken the plunge. And I see your man Bradley's still in-form.

As I've said in the comments on this week's Shell Houston preview, the player I think is over-priced still is Geoff Ogilvy.

And like you, I can't wait either. People keep saying have a nice Easter. Don't you mean a good Masters I reply!
Ronsk | 30 March 2012

I've made a habit of backing Ogilvy for the last four years... Needless to say, I'm losing on him! He has gone backwards in my view.

Nice call with Hoey last week by the way. I actually backed Woods for Bay Hill before the off. First time I've been with him since his world fell in... Good guesswork I reckon! ;0)
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Ian | 06 April 2012

Yes nice points. I backed Bubba Watson @40, Bo Van Pelt @66 and Nick Watney @60. All 3 had a fairly good day yesterday, particulary Bubba so I'm happy with with my bets. The hole-in-one stat for Sunday is very interesting and hopefully come Saturday evening there won't have been an ace and there is a nice price available for it to happen on the Sunday :)