The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 March 2012 /

Back a late ace to land profits at Augusta National

This will be the 76th US Masters and during the first 75 events there have only been 21 aces. Their scarcity suggests the only feasible option is to lay Yes or back No but that's definitely not the case.

In the tournament's entire history, the tough 4th hole has provided just one hole-in-one. Four have been registered at the 6th and there have been just three at the 12th. If there's going to be one this time around, it's probably going to be at the 16th. And if we do get one there, it's highly likely to be on Sunday.

Much excitement has been caused over recent years by the pin-placement on the 16th on Sunday and we've seen a rash of hole-in-ones there, seven in the last eight years in fact.

In 2004 Padraig Harrington and Kirk Triplett, playing in consecutive groups, both aced it within ten minutes of each other and then there were two there again two years ago, one each for Nathan Green and Ryan Moore.

Given the extra spice putting the flag on the flat spot below the slope provides, I see no reason whatsoever for the organisers to change tact, so it's all about getting Yes onside on day four, how it's done is all down to personal choice.

You could lay No before the tournament begins and then back it back after round three (provided there hasn't already been one of course) or you could take less of a risk and just back Yes before Sunday but I don't see any value in doing so before then. The price will drift as the event progresses and yet, if there is to be one at all, the odds are stacked in favour of a Sunday ace.

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