The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 March 2010 /

Our man's pre-event picks all look beat but has he found a bit of halfway value in Florida?

I can't say I've even remotely enjoyed the first couple of days play at this week's main event, the WGC-CA Championship. All seven pre-event picks look to be lost causes, while last week's main bet, Robert Allenby, is right in contention in second place, a stroke behind Ernie Els.

What a difference a week makes, Allenby missed the cut at the Honda Classic a week ago on a course where he hadn't been out of the first five in three attempts, but it seems there may have been a reason that I stupidly overlooked.

Allenby was drawn with Anthony Kim last week and it's fair to say that there may just have been a bit of an atmosphere, as the two have history. After losing to Kim at the Presidents Cup Allenby called him a 'loose cannon', claiming he'd been out partying until four the night before - an accusation the American refuted. When they met just a few weeks later in the Volvo Word Match Play semi-final, Kim again got the better of the argument, comfortably winning 5 & 4. It appears as though the Aussie, who went into last week's event in fine form and who has come out of it in equally fine form, was probably affected by having to face young Kim yet again, and I'm a little cross with myself for not spotting the banana skin.

Anyway, back to this week... Els, on ten under par, leads by one from Allenby with two further shots back to Bill Haas, recent winner of the Bob Hope Classic, and Charl Schwartzel, twice a Race to Dubai winner already in 2010.

It's a funny event really, the highest ranked players in the world are all gathered but here we are at the halfway stage, and I can't see one I'm mad keen on backing at all.

History suggests that the winner will come from the leading pack - in the last four years the halfway leaders have all obliged, and in the 48 years that Doral has hosted a PGA Tour event, 26 third round leaders have held on to win, but I simply can't trust Els. Nor am I keen on taking anything like a short price about Allenby. He's playing superbly but not only did last week's mishap make me question his mental fortitude again, but watching him bogey the last four holes in round one when he held a commanding lead was also a worrying sign.

It's a confusing picture, everything points to Els and Allenby but I can't support either at such short prices given how awful they've both been in contention in recent years, so who do I back? Well I was tempted to throw the towel in and just see if any of my original picks can go really low and somehow get involved but that's a bit defeatist, especially as I don't like the leaders. There must be some value somewhere, and it could just be in the shape of Haas.

Given that history suggests you need to be up with the pace, he looks a reasonably price. He's more than capable of going low in today's forecast better conditions and although I can't pretend to be oozing with confidence I'm happy enough with the price, having taken [27.0] last night.

The weather has also had a say at the other event this week, the Puerto Rico Open. In fact half the field are yet to hit a ball. Both of my picks have started though - Carl Pettersson is currently one over after eight holes, but Richard S Johnson has started quite well, and is four under par after eight, but stating the absolute bleeding obvious, there's a long way to go...

I'm really not confident of success at all this week but it's going to be interesting, can the flaky veterans hold on? Whatever the result, I'll be analysing it all in Monday's de-brief.

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