The Punter's Update: Nothing clear on either Tour leaves me with huge puzzle to solve
The Punter
/
Steven Rawlings /
07 June 2008 /
Our golf bettor is having trouble finding a likely winner at both The Austrian Open and the St Jude
Not the greatest two days of golf ever, in fact, not two days of golf.
The Austria Open was rained off completely on Thursday so as you read this round two is still in progress and the event has been reduced to three rounds.
My original four selections' performances yesterday ranged from poor to mediocre and given the reduction in tournament length they'll all struggle to top the leaderboard come Sunday.
I added to my original picks last night by backing one of the players leading after round one on -7 with an early tee time today, Scott Barr @ [30.0], but he looks to be going the way of my other picks.
What was a tricky low grade affair has been made a lot harder to fathom now we have a three round 'sprint'. But if you are considering a bet I'd recommend looking closely at those with a morning tee time today. The players going out this afternoon are going to feel like they have a mountain to climb just to get in contention ready for tomorrow's dash for the line.
It's often a better tactic to back those that have done the job and got in the house as opposed to those that still have the job to do. It's often where the value is too, the market is usually optimistic about those on the course and that's partly due to people wanting to back players they can watch live on TV.
Of the players I mentioned in my preview, JM Singh faired best yesterday, tying for the lead. After failing to qualify on Monday for next weeks US Open, I'd had him down as one to avoid. Having backed him consistently all year it's now likely he could reward me by winning here and leaving me with a considerable amount off egg on my face.
I will look far more closely at the event after today's play but I've got a feeling its going to be quite a conundrum.
It wasn't a great start for me in Europe, but in the US it was atrocious. I'm embarrassed to have backed Steve Lowery; rounds of 75 and 80 saw him miss the cut by a mile. It was the golfing wager equivalent of the footballer's shot that goes out for a throw!
David Toms and Richard S Johnson weren't much better, they may have made the cut but they have only marginally more chance of winning the event than I do.
For a spell on Thursday night I was regretting not backing Kenny Perry again, he raced to -3 after nine holes and traded at a low of [7.8] but to my relief he's slipped slowly back since.
In fact -3 is now the lead after two rounds and it looks almost as open as the Austrian event. I backed three players yesterday during the second round, Stephen Ames early in his round @ [17.0] and then later on @ [32.0] and I now have him at an average of [27.0]. In addition I backed Dean Wilson @ [15.5], after he'd played nine holes and just before he started to drop a few shots. And finally, I also picked out Trevor Immelman @ [38.0], as he finished up his second round.
It's somewhat fortunate that all three look in decent shape this morning and are trading shorter than the price I backed them at. It's thanks mainly to the ineptitude of others, Boo Weekley's bogey, double bogey finish saw him slide out of the leading bunch while Tommy Armour III gave up the lead when he double bogeyed his last hole.
Both events have a cloudy confusing look to them with lots of little known players in the mix and I'm going to continue to exercise caution. I'll let you know how they both finish up on Monday.
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