The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 14 February 2009 /

The Punter updates us on his golf betting positions either side of the pond and tells us why despite playing well and leading in the US, Retief Goosen can't be trusted to close the deal like he used to.

The big story on day one at the Malaysian Open was Anthony Kim's poor opening round, and it was all down to his putting. In his post round interview he claimed that he had never played on greens so slow and, somewhat politically incorrectly, that he'd "putted like Ray Charles"! His six over 78 had effectively done for his chances.

All bar one of my picks shot three under par on day one, which was nine shots more than first round leader Seung-Yul Noh. None of them were out of it but none were really in it either and when only Prayad Marksaeng advanced his position on day two I was left to survey the state of play with the realisation that my initial salvo was quite likely to draw a blank.

It was an incredibly weak looking leaderboard at the halfway stage, with home player Danny Chia leading, as he had at the same stage last year. On that occasion he shot 80 in round three, so he was overlooked, as was second placed Alexander Noren. The Swede has repeatedly disappointed when in with a chance in the past and until he shows a big improvement with his nerves, is always worth opposing.

I really didn't like anyone up there and had just a small play on Seung-Yul Noh at [21.0]. He'd shot one over par in round two and trailed by four.

Up at four o'clock this morning and by five o'clock I'd been a little trigger happy and added to my picks with Gareth Maybin at an average of [18.0], when he'd reached three under par through just four holes. Maybin had impressed me when he'd pressed Sterne all the way to the line at the South African Open just before Christmas but he struggled after I'd backed him this morning and looks to be yet another stray bullet.

Patience was the watchword after that and as tempting as it was to jump on all and sundry as they moved up the leaderboard, I waited and watched.

Chia, as expected, had a mare and was all over the place, Adam Blyth scythed through the field then came to an abrupt stop with a bogey on the 17th and Noren finished very scruffily, having looked likely to take a hold of the tournament at one point.

Fortunately for me Prayad Marksaeng had a very good day and now sits just two back. I greedily topped up at [25.0] as he made his move and then went in again at a remarkable generous [17.0], long after he'd signed for his 65.

I also backed the biggest mover of the day, Miles Tunnicliff at [21.0], once everyone was safely in the house.

The first three in the betting, Noren, Liang, and Blyth all have poor records in contention and I'm quite happy to be against them. I'm very top-heavy on Marksaeng now but hopefully that will give me plenty of scope to lay some back tomorrow if he gets off to a decent start. I think it's going to be a really exciting last day's play with plenty of twists and turns.

At the AT & T my main pick, Vijay Singh, started slowly and just got slower! I'm not sure how much it was to do with his recent injury but his poor putting certainly didn't help.

Mickelson is still miles from his best and Harrington again started slowly. Best of the shorter priced runners from the off is Mike Weir, but he trod water for long spells yesterday and perhaps should be closer to the lead than he is.

The current leader is Retief Goosen, who looked like a new man, using a belly putter for just the second time and, following an unsuccessful eye op, sporting a pair of prescription sun glasses. He's been showing plenty of form lately but I can't trust him at all. He used to be one of the strongest closers in the game but hasn't looked the same since his final round collapse in the 2005 US Open.

It's a little bit aggravating to see Charley Hoffman, who I've backed the last two weeks, bobbing around near the leaders but for now I'm letting him go and hoping he disappoints again at the sharp end.

I have made a further play though, dipping in and out on Dustin Johnson, who's currently second, two back of the Goose and two clear of the field. With backs at an average of [9.6] and lays at an average of [6.2] I've built up a nice position on the big hitting youngster, who was most impressive when securing his maiden win in the Turning Stone Resort Championship last year.

It's another early start tomorrow so it's time for some shut eye, need to be bright eyed and bushy tailed for tomorrows final round shenanigans. I'll review the conclusion of both events on Monday.

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