The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 24 January 2010 /

The Punter put us on to this week's Abu Dhabi winner last year! But he's not resting on his laurels as he looks for clues for the future in his weekly de-brief....

I'm not completely ignoring this week's Bob Hope Classic, but rain delays have meant the five-rounder will run into Monday, and given that none of the world's top 35 players have entered, it's fair to say it was very much the second string event. So for this week's de-brief, I've concentrated my efforts on the action in Abu Dhabi.

Martin Kaymer's form figures at the Abu Dhabi Championship now read MC -1 -2 -1. Quite what he was up to in 2007 is a mystery! His win this week was far from mysterious however, and it's the third event running where the Race to Dubai has produced a plausible winner. Welcome respite for backers indeed, after such a difficult 2009.

Rounds of 67-67-67-66 saw Kaymer hold off Ian Poulter by a stroke, in what developed into a tremendous battle. The young German, tipped to win this event in my "Five players to follow in 2010"piece and backed at [18.0], justified my lofty opinion of him as he showed incredible bottle to hole from about 15 feet for par on the 17th. He went on to birdie the last for victory.

Poulter deserves much credit too. I felt he was pretty solid in contention up until a year or so ago, but I started to have my doubts after one or two slightly shaky finishes, most notably in Korea in October '08, when he made a mess of the last hole and lost. He was superb today though and impossible to fault.

My Bets

I wrote on Friday that I'd perhaps meddled too much and so it proved as in-running wagers on Chris Wood, Rick Kulacz, Marc Warren and Alvaro Quiros all proved ultimately to be just a waste of money.

During play on Saturday I did make what looked like a smart move though, laying back some of my Kaymer bet back at [2.0] after he'd birdied the ninth. Then, at the close of play , I backed Poulter at [5.5]. He was a shot behind Kaymer at the time in a tie for second alongside Rory McIlroy. I also backed Louis Oosthuizen at [170.0], who had shot 64 on the final day to finish second 12 months ago. This year he could only manage a 66 for fifth.

Things went smoothly enough during round four. Fast starts from Kaymer and Poulter put me in the driving seat and I layed both players back at odds on. I even had a modest bet on young Rory at [26.0], just to make the back nine a stress-free watch.

Player to Watch

I'm going to go with the obvious and put forward Martin Kaymer. This was a very strong performance and it's well worth remembering that when he won in France last year, he pitched up in Scotland the week later to repeat the dose. It's likely that the market will view this win as I do though, and he may well be a bit short in the next week or two. However, he's well worth putting in the memory bank for the WGC Matchplay in Arizona next month, an event he's mentioned as a target, and which is staged in the desert, which clearly suits.

Player to Swerve

It's possibly a smidgen harsh to fault a 20-year-old who has just shot five under par on a Sunday, in such a high profile event, but, yet again, young Rory was found wanting.

The devil's in the detail and the detail was in the first few holes, when a scuffed chip and a couple of very weak putts were enough to see the young Ulsterman detach himself from the leaders. And yet again, once that happened he played much better.

Most weeks, McIlroy goes off at short prices, trades at even shorter ones but ultimately fails to win. He's still only won once from over 60 professional starts, so taking him on when he's in contention is very much still the tactic.

What have we learnt for next year?

If Kaymer turns up, back him! To expand a bit more though...the key stats were once again length off the tee and putting, but I do feel accuracy will become more important as the years pass and the rough establishes itself.

We're starting to see course form repeat itself in no uncertain terms here, with two multiple winners in just five years, so it could prove to be a punter friendly event going forward. Although organisers have made noises about moving to a different venue in the not too distant future - news the layers will greet more favourably than the punters, particularly this one!

I've had a few more bets in the Bob Hope, wagers on DJ Trahan, Ryan Palmer and Tim Clark have probably only made matters worse but we'll see. Whatever happens there, I'll be back on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with a preview of next week's events, the Farmers Insurance Open and the Qatar Masters.

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