The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 22 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's an all out Zach Attack for Steve at East Lake as he puts his faith in Johnson

There's no Race to Dubai event in Europe this week but there is the Vivendi Trophy, formerly the Seve Trophy. It's a biennial Match Play event between Continental Europe and GB and Ireland.

Continental Europe look to have the strongest side on paper and will start as favourites, but although they won the inaugural event in 2000, GB & Ireland have won all four subsequent renewals and may just be the value play again this year.

Selection:

GB and Ireland @ [2.54]

In the States it's the FedEx Cup finale, The Tour Championship, played at East Lake, Atlanta, Georgia, and the obvious question is - is Tiger Woods worth a play at around [2.30]?

For me the answer is, only just, no.

It was impossible not to be extremely impressed by his demolition of the field at Cog Hill in the BMW, less than a fortnight ago, when he had the event well and truly sewn up with a round to go and won with consummate ease.

Similarly, it's impossible to find fault with his win at East Lake in 2007, where he also had the event won way before Sunday evening, shooting immaculate rounds of 64,63,64,66 for an impressive 23 under par total. Compare that to Camilo Villegas' winning total of seven under par last year, when Tiger was out injured, and surely the great man's a good thing? Well not quite...

The reason the scoring was far higher last year was due to a redesign of the course after the '07 event. The greens were redone and seeded with Bermuda, a change made because the bentgrass had wilted that year in the heat.

Now I'm not saying for one minute that Tiger Woods will be completely hamstrung by the changes, after all, Rees Jones, architect of the changes here, was also responsible for the changes at Cog Hill and Tiger dotted up there. But his record at East Lake isn't, in Tiger terms, truly magnificent - he's won twice here from 11 starts, and his price doesn't look especially generous.

One player whose price did look generous to me was Zach Johnson. I've backed Zach plenty of times this year, including last time out when he finished 5th in the BMW, and when he won his two events in Hawaii and Texas, so he owes me nothing this year. He ticks so many boxes this week that I'm really quite excited by his chance.

His current form is more than acceptable. He's shown an aptitude for East Lake, he didn't play here last year but finished 2nd in '07, when he shot a course record 60 in round three. He has a tremendous record in Georgia - winning both the Masters and the AT & T Classic (twice) in the State and he putts on Bermuda greens really well. Both his wins this year, in Hawaii and then in Texas, where he made a successful title defence, came on courses with Bermuda greens. So the change in the putting surface since his last visit should only enhance his chances.

All things considered I think Zach's a cracking bet this week and having had such a solid season he'd make a worthy FedEx Champion too.

My only other bet this week is a small play on Jerry Kelly, whose credentials are outlined in this week's 'Find Me A 100 Winner' column.

Selections:

Zach Johnson @ [24.0]
Jerry Kelly @ [100.0]

I'll post an update at the halfway stage on Saturday.

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