The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 10 March 2010 / 2 Comments

Our man swerves the favourites this week as he plumps for some big hitting, big priced selections at Doral

It's the second World Golf Championship event of the year this week, the CA Championship, staged at the TPC Blue Monster, Doral, Florida.

This is the fourth staging at Doral - prior to that it was known as the American Express Championship and was a nomadic event, last staged at the Grove in Hertfordshire in 2006. There's more than three years of course form to peruse though as, up to and including 2006, Doral played host to the Ford Championship.

The Blue Monster hasn't been a monster for years now and low scores are commonplace, despite recent course changes to try and toughen it up. Since Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma ravaged it back in 2005, taking out thousands of trees, although GIR (Greens In Regulations) is still an important stat, big hitters have enjoyed improved results, and I've focused a lot of my attention on them this week.

The sensible place to start is with defending champion, tournament favourite, and renowned tee-ball bomber, Phil Mickelson, who isn't an awful price at around [11.0]. He's had a slow start to 2010 but does seem to be improving with every tournament and it wouldn't be a shock to see him contend, but I'm going to leave him for now as I feel there's better value elsewhere.

The first of my seven selections is Geoff Ogilvy, who has some very impressive form here, having won the event in 2008, a year after finishing third. His title defence was disappointing last year but that was his first outing after winning the WGC Match Play, so that effort could well be excused. He already has the SBS Championship title to his name in 2010 but has been lightly-raced after that, due to the birth of his third child. A Scottsdale resident, I wonder if being close to home for the Match Play and Phoenix Open was in fact a negative, with all the distractions of the new arrival and I suspect this week could see the return of a more focused, businesslike Geoff.

Recent winners, Steve Stricker, Ian Poulter, Hunter Mahan and Camilo Villegas (who looks to have a great chance, but is a shade too short) all seem to have had their prices adjusted to account for their success' but Dustin Johnson, winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am just a month ago, is actually bigger this week than he was then, and given how far he whacks it off the tee, I've had to support him.

I put Nick Watney up as a player to swerve after yet another poor putting display at the Match Play, but the [50.0] available on Monday about him was simply too big given that he finished runner-up to Lefty here last year. After a poor first round at the Phoenix two weeks ago he played fairly well, shooting a 63 in round two, before going on to finish in a tie for 24th.

Alvaro Quiros made his debut here last year and took to the place like a duck to water before fading to finish 13th. He's certainly prone to more than the odd bad hole and I was bitterly disappointed with his finish at the recent Dubai Desert Classic, but he deserves a bit more respect than the layers are showing and [60.0] is definitely too big.

Although neither Matt Kuchar nor Michael Sim has any course form (Kuchar one missed cut in '04, and Sim's making his debut this week), I considered the pair both worthy of support at triple-figure odds, given the form they've both shown in recent months.

My final pick, Ross McGowan, was last seen out at the Match Play, where he managed to beat number one seed and favourite Steve Stricker. I believe McGowan has tremendous potential and that result may just install some added belief and provide a springboard to more success. It's a massive ask but he's a massive price.

Selections:

Geoff Ogilvy @ [29.0]
Dustin Johnson @ [42.0]
Nick Watney @ [50.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [60.0]
Matt Kuchar @ [140.0]
Michael Sim @ [200.0]
Ross McGowan @ [420.0]

Mike Norman advocates the chances of Oliver Wilson this week and I couldn't agree more. I don't often stray from the win market but I couldn't resist a nibble on Wilson in the Top UK and Ireland market at [14.5].

There is another event this week - the Puerto Rico Open, now in its third year. The first two winners, Greg Kraft and Michael Bradley were impossible to spot pre-event and another surprise winner is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.

Given those two results, the lack of course form and the weak field, I've given the event very little attention and have made just two modest plays from the get-go.

Swedes Richard S Johnson and Carl Pettersson have at least won on the PGA Tour and have both shown glimpses of form in recent months and I felt they looked a shade big.

Selections:

Richard S Johnson @ [70.0]
Carl Pettersson @ [70.0]

I'll post an update at the halfway stage of both events on Saturday morning.

Comments (2)

1. Jack | 10 March 2010

   i got whatney, quiros, furyk, and allenby to win.
   and ogilvy, de jonge, bjornstad, streelman, and quigley to finish in top ten in puerto rico.

2. Dave | 10 March 2010

   E.Molinari isn't getting a mention anywhere ?
   Amazed , he was unlucky against Cink in WMP .
   125/1 ? He is better than that !
   Dave.

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