The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 03 June 2009 /

A raft of absentees sees Steve plump for some big-priced outsiders in Wales, while there's a little more quality on show in Ohio.

Assuming that a few players turn up on Thursday, the 2010 course at the Celtic Manor resort will host the Wales Open. So far Robert Karlsson, Soren Kjeldsen and Soren Hansen have all withdrawn, leaving Ross Fisher favourite for the second week running.

Even before the withdrawals I was struggling to find a strong fancy and now that prices have been slashed on account of the absentees I've really struggled to see any value.

Miguel Angel Jimenez, Francesco Molinari and last week's runner-up Steve Webster were all considered but I had niggling doubts over all three. Jimenez was struggling with a shoulder injury at Wentworth, Molinari doesn't seem to have the stomach for a battle and I was worried about Webster's reaction to last week's disappointment. For those reasons I felt that all three were just a tad short.

I've backed Raphael Jacquelin, who was emerging from a major slump in form when finishing fourth last year and who may well be inspired by his countryman Christian Cevaer's stoic victory last week.

I can't quite believe the price on Thongchai Jaidee, he really is ridiculously underrated. I know he missed the cut last week but it was such a war of attrition that that may well have been a blessing, and besides, when he won in Korea a little over a month ago it was following a missed cut the week before.

The rest of my picks, including a couple more Frenchmen, are all outsiders for small stakes.

Selections:

Raphael Jacquelin @ [60.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [85.0]
Gregory Bourdy @ [90.0]
Marc Warren @ [140.0]
Paul Broadhurst @ [150.0]
Michael Hoey @ [180.0]
Chapchai Nirat @ [190.0]
Gregory Havret @ [210.0]
Pablo Martin @ [300.0]
John Bickerton @ [350.0]

In the US the PGA Tour moves from Hogan's Alley in Texas to Jack's place in Ohio, for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village.

It's an event that usually throws up a top class winner, though Bart Bryant in '05 and Carl Pettersson in '06 may not quite be described as such. Prior to Bryant's success the majority of winners had either won a major or went on to do so.

I have fond memories of the last two winners, KJ Choi and Kenny Perry, as both were backed before the off and I've stuck with the latter again this year.

His performance last week, after a good start, is a concern, as is the pressure that defending the title brings, but I still thought he was a value price at [26.0] to win the event for a record fourth time.

Also going for a fourth win is Tiger Woods, but his recent form here hasn't been scintillating and he didn't impress me much in his last two events. I know he hasn't a great record at Sawgrass so his eighth-placed finish in the Players' could be overlooked but his last day performance at Quail Hollow was also disappointing and at around [4.0] he doesn't represent any value.

In contrast, Zach Johnson, heading the FedExCup list and already a duel winner this season looks a belting good bet. He finished runner-up behind Pettersson in '06 and comes here following a decent enough ninth place last week. That was a fair effort after a slow start, which could possibly be excused; given it was his first start since his victory in the Texas Open.

My third and final pick is Woody Austin, who has some sneaky form at Muirfield Village. He was in contention in both '05 and '06 before poor final rounds saw him slump down the leaderboard. The self-proclaimed 'Choking Dog' was prominent on last week's leaderboard and looks worth chancing at a big price.

Selections:

Kenny Perry @ [26.0]
Zach Johnson @ [27.0]
Woody Austin @ an average of [175.0]

I'll post an update at the halfway stage of both events on Saturday morning.

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