The Punter's picks for the W M Phoenix Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 February 2010 / 6

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Brian Gay – Is he ready to win again?

"I spent Monday night looking in greater detail at the outsiders in the field and I was like a kid in a sweet shop! I saw value in far too many players and my list of selections just grew and grew. I just couldn’t stop myself, think Augustus Gloop in Thorntons!"

Our man's like a kid in a sweet shop with all the value available at this week's PGA Tour event, but is he just going to end up feeling sick?...

With no Race to Dubai event this week, there's just the one tournament to focus on - the Waste Management Phoenix Open, formally the FBR Open. So it's gone from being sponsored by investment bankers to rubbish collectors, quite a change.

Although I enjoy watching this event, with its exciting finishing stretch and raucous large crowds, it's not one I've ever had much success in, but I'm getting closer. I was on Charley Hoffman last year and Phil Mickelson the year before, and they both lost in play-offs.

Talking of Lefty... He has a very decent record here, with two wins and seven other top tens, and regular readers will know that I'm a huge fan, but I'm giving him a miss this week.

I've backed Mickelson in each of his first three events this year but to no avail. He didn't look as though he was too far off last time out at Pebble Beach but having taken last week off for a family holiday, I'm a little wary and given that he's missed the cut here twice in the last two years, I'm happy to let him go off un-backed.

The two main attributes required for success at TPC Scottsdale in previous years have been driving distance and putting, which puts Martin Kaymer right in the picture. He spends his winters in Arizona, is a member at the nearby Whisper Rock Golf Club, and is sure to have played this week's venue plenty of times. Although I can see him doing well, he's not quite at a price that would tempt.

Of the other market leaders, Geoff Ogilvy looked a little rusty last week, returning from paternity leave, and looks a little short. And so does last week's winner, Ian Poulter, who must be shattered.

JB Holmes is in very fair form and is looking to win the event for the third time. He's gone 1st -missed cut - 1st - missed cut, in his four efforts to date, but is just [25.0] to keep up the sequence, and I'm happy to overlook him too.

My first selection, Brian Gay, has caught the eye this year with some solid form. Career bests at both the Bob Hope Classic and the AT&T Pebble Beach, were followed last week by a progression to round three at the Match Play, where he was unlucky enough to run into a red-hot Paul Casey. He's a quite brilliant putter, with an improving run of results at TPC Scottsdale, and he could just be ready to win again.

Second up is Zach Johnson, who was 12th last year, in just his fourth appearance at the event. That was his first start after a couple of weeks off following his win at the Sony Open and interestingly; he struggled a bit on the greens. He was ranked third for Driving Accuracy and he hit more greens in regulation than anyone else but surprisingly was ranked only tied 57th for putting, which was very poor for Zach (he's currently ranked fifth on the PGA's Putting Average stat). He's putting very well again this year so I expect an improvement from 12 months ago and I fancy he could be bang there come Sunday.

Third up, and the last of my double-figure priced picks is Matt Kuchar, who finished alongside Gay last year in tied sixth. He's been in a very rich vein of form since the Fed-Ex play-offs in the autumn and but for a three-putt on the final green at the Bob Hope, he may well have been looking for a third win in just five months.

I spent Monday night looking in greater detail at the outsiders in the field and I was like a kid in a sweet shop! I saw value in far too many players and my list of selections just grew and grew. I just couldn't stop myself, think Augustus Gloop in Thorntons! I finished up backing a ridiculous nine other players. No doubt such gluttony will only lead to a sick feeling later on in the week but you never know.

Selections:

Brian Gay @ [40.0]
Zach Johnson @ [42.0]
Matt Kuchar @ [44.0]
Michael Sim @ [100.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [110.0]
Ben Crane @ [120.0]
Jeev Milkha Singh @ [150.0]
Justin Leonard @ [160.0]
Ryan Palmer @ [170.0]
George McNeil @ [250.0]
Ricky Barnes @ [270.0]
Mark Wilson @ [350.0]

I'll post an update after the cut, on Saturday morning.

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Neil McMurdo | 24 February 2010

Is there any sites you guys can look at where it shows past results in every tournament in USA. I can go back years on www.europeantour.com and even by round but struggling to find past stats for USA comps.

Thanks
Neil
Steven Rawlings | 24 February 2010

Hi Neil,

Here are couple of free sites with plenty of info.

https://www.databasegolf.com/

https://www.golfobserver.com/golfstats.php

I also use Tour-Tips.com, which is brilliant, but you do have to pay for that one.

Enjoy the research and good luck with your bets.

Cheers
Steve
xxxxxxxxx | 25 February 2010

Dont you just love a preview that gives millions of selections but doesnt talk any of them up? What happens if Mark Wilson wins for example? Are you going to say I told you so?

Please give reasons for your selection or are you just paid to write rubbish after rubbish?
vipin agnihotri | 25 February 2010

Hello Steve

I love your writing style and research work. Do you have twitter, gmail or hotmail account where I can chat with you and take your advice. I will be very thankful

Regards

Vipin
Steven Rawlings | 25 February 2010

Hi Vipin,

Thanks for your kind comments, it’s great to get some feedback.

I don’t have a twitter account or hotmail, or gmail. I may well do in
the future but I’ve always wondered where I’d find the time, there
never seems to be enough hours in the day as it is.

That said, I’m more than happy to answers any specific questions
here...time permitting of course!

Good luck with your bets and once again, thanks for the feedback.

Regards
Steve
Steven Rawlings | 25 February 2010

xxxxxxxxx

Thanks for the comments.

In my defence this column really isn’t a ‘tipping column’. It’s merely a diary of how I, as a successful golf gambler, play the golf markets each and every week.

I can fully understand your frustration at so many selections, I’m not overly happy about it myself!! Some weeks there are just a couple, some weeks a dozen, and when there are a lot, as there are this week, I don’t go into detail on each one, simply because the piece would just be too long, so I try and concentrate on the most likely winners amongst my picks.

Re Mark Wilson - He was the defending champion at last week’s Mayakoba Golf Classic, where he played fairly well, finishing in a tie for 28th, so I’m hoping memories of success could spark some stellar play.

He’s only played at TPC Scottsdale twice but was 9th on his debut two years ago, so he has shown an aptitude for the venue. The real plus with Wilson though, is that he has won a couple of events so if he does get in the mix he could well convert.

And finally, if he did happen to win, I wouldn’t necessarily be saying ‘I told you so’ but I’d certainly be crowing about it in Monday’s de-brief.

Good luck with your bets this week, even if you haven’t made quite as many as me!

Regards
Steve