The Punter's picks for the Qatar Masters and the WM Phoenix Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 02 February 2011 / 2

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The unique 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale

“Players need thick skins if they’re going to mess up at the par three 16th hole, where thousands upon thousands dish out jeers and cheers in equal drunken measures.”

Steve looks to rekindle happy memories of past glories in Qatar and to erase painful ones of near misses in Phoenix....

Now in its 14th year, the Qatar Masters has always been staged at Doha GC, so there's plenty of course form to peruse. The first thing that stuck me is that the last six winners have all been top-class, so it's highly likely that the run of punter-friendly results on the Race to Dubai could well continue for at least another week.

I knew who'd be my main pick here as long ago as last year really. I backed Alvaro Quiros when he won this event two years ago and I was again onboard twelve months ago when he finished second. He's the second of my Five Bets for 2011, though the less said about the first the better! And I see Paul Krishnamurty also ear-marked the swashbuckling Spaniard for this event in his 'Five to following during the Desert Swing' piece.

Another of Paul's five is Louis Oosthuizen and after a bit of dithering I've backed him too, but not at the price I pondered far too long over on Monday. Some lucky soles have managed to get [30.0] and [29.0] about King Louis, I've settled for [27.0]. He was the runner-up two years ago, 14th last year and eighth in '05. I was very disappointed by his performance in Abu Dhabi a fortnight ago but I'm prepared to give him another chance.

If I hadn't backed Oosthuizen I would almost certainly have backed last year's winner Robert Karlsson. His whole game was in fine fettle last week but he putted particularly well when finishing fifth in Bahrain. I never seem to get Bob right though, so I've reluctantly left him out.

Last year's third, Brett Rumford looked a little big at [180.0] and one from far, far leftfield is Pablo Martin. The Spaniard's three outings to date here have yielded precisely zilch - two missed cuts and a withdrawal but at [350.00] I thought he was well worth a few pounds and here's why. It's a bit longwinded but bear with me...

It's less than two months since Martin defended the Alfred Dunhill Championship, an event Alvaro Quiros also won in 2007, and he should also have won the Portugal Masters in October - where he traded odds on. Another event Quiros has won. And the runner-up in Portugal (for the second time) was Karlsson, defending champ here. There looks to be a correlation between the two venues and maybe also this one and Leopard Creek. Like Quiros, Ernie Els has won this title as well as the Alfred Dunhill Championship. It could be a nonsensical theory but at the price I can live with it if so.

Selections:

Alvaro Quiros @ [20.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [27.0]
Brett Rumford @ [180.0]
Pablo Martin @ [350.0]

Like the Qatar Masters, this week's US PGA Tour event, the WM Phoenix Open, also has plenty of course form to consider - it's been played at TPC Scottsdale since 1987. It's a unique and very well patronised stadium course where players need thick skins if they're going to mess up at the par three 16th hole, where thousands upon thousands dish out jeers and cheers in equal drunken measures.

Phil Mickelson didn't do much wrong when getting beat by the narrowest of margins by Bubba Watson on Sunday and I couldn't see any reason not to back him again this week, in an event he's already won twice.

Last week he ranked second for GIR (Greens in Regulation) and 11th for putting. A repeat of that performance will see him go close again. He'll need to lift himself though, as he looked pretty disappointed on Sunday night.

I've also backed last year's third, Y E Yang, who played ok last week and who looked a shade big at a triple-figure price. I don't want to dwell too long on last year, it was a painful result. As well as backing Yang, I was also backed runner-up Rickie Fowler at a big price and they both traded odds on but failed to cross the line!

Paul Krishnamurty was also on Fowler last year - he was his 'Find Me A 100 Winner' pick and purely by coincidence I see I've backed one of his selections again this year....

After backing Scottsdale resident Robert Garrigus in-running at the opening event of the season, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, where he lost in a play-off, I've backed him, and been very disappointed in him, in his last two events. I was going to give up on him but I see he was 11th here on debut way back in 2007. He missed the cut a year later in his only other outing but he's a different proposition nowadays and sleeping in his own bed won't hinder his chances.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ [9.2]
Y E Yang @ [100.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [140.0]

I'll be back sometime on Thursday with the start of my Live Golf Blog.

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sipots | 03 February 2011

Hi Steve
Am a bit of a newbiw to this - perhaps you could just explain this comment of yours for me?

"so it's highly likely that the run of punter-friendly results on the Race to Dubai could well continue for at least another week."

What has happened so far this year that is 'punter-friendly'? I am guessing it is something to do with the amount of times that one of the top few favourites wins. Is this so and if so, what's your view on how often this happens?

Cheers

Sipots
Steven Rawlings | 03 February 2011

Hi Sipots,
Sorry for the delay in replying.
You’re spot on. All the winners on the 2011 Race to Dubai to date have been plausible candidates and the last three favourites have all won – something I can’t remember happening before.
Some events, for whatever factors are repeatedly won by fancied players and others by outsiders. If a tournament is being staged at a course used many times before it’s always worth scanning through previous results to get an idea of what sort of profile winner you can expect.
As for why there have been so many fancied winners so far this season... It could be down to a combination of factors.
Firstly, the South African swing – responsible for the first four events, tends to serve up quite weak affairs. Few regular European Tour players make the trip and the home contingency, if they aren’t already global players, tend not to handle the pressure of a stronger event in stature than they’re used to on the Sunshine Tour (the South African Tour), leaving the way clear for the likes of Louis Oosthuizen, Ernie Els, and Charl Schwartzel to boss the show.
After that, Kaymer has owned the Abu Dhabi Championship anyway and last week’s tough conditions suited the better players.
Secondly, it could be a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts. Once one big name wins the others are spurred on to follow.
Or it could all just be a coincidence. Personally I think it’s down to the event type, worth remembering for next year.
Regards
Steve