The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Steve goes for some big priced players again this week as he tries his luck in Portugal and Las Vegas

“If you fancy a big priced player with no course form then go for it, you could well get lucky in Vegas. Even Tiger Woods was a big price when he won here!”

A decent field assembles at the Oceânico Victoria Golf Course for the third staging of the Portugal Masters, and after the last two winners in the Race to Dubai, Simon Dyson and Ross McGowan, form students look to be finally getting some respite. Both players were in fine form prior to their wins, indeed it was Dyson's second win in the space of six weeks.

I was sorely tempted by Dyson again but felt he was just a shade shorter than I'd have liked and so I've left him out. I also considered Alex Noren, also in fine form, and of course last year's winner and a big favourite of mine, Alvaro Quiros, but the likable Spaniard is just not hitting his irons with enough accuracy right now, so I've regrettably left him out too.

Without a strong fancy towards the head of the market the plan this week will be to get more involved as the event progresses but I have picked out a few from the get-go.

My first selection is a real gamble in the sense that he may well flop completely, but at the price I'm prepared to take a chance. Runner-up in the inaugural Portugal Masters and third last year, it's fair to say that last year's order of merit winner Robert Karlsson quite likes it here.

The downside is that he's just taking the first tentative steps back on tour after a lengthy break due to a nasty eye injury. Hopefully the Vivendi Trophy and the Alfred Dunhill have knocked most of the rust off and he can return to something like the form he was in last year. If he does, given his course form, the [48.0] will look very big.

Last week's runner-up Mikko Ilonen looked worth chancing at triple figure odds. And after that it's a few really big-priced outsiders - recent winners Peter Hedblom and James Kingston, and finally Paul Broadhurst, already a two-time winner in Portugal. He's been showing glimpses of form just lately and there's not much downside at [250.0].

Selections:

Robert Karlsson @ [48.0]
Mikko Ilonen @ [110.0]
Peter Hedblom @ [140.0]
James Kingston @ [180.0]
Paul Broadhurst @ [250.0]

Across the pond, the event this week is the rather lengthily named Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. A pro-am event that's been played in Las Vegas since 1983 and it's an event where the winners haven't been easy to find lately.

If you fancy a big priced player with no course form then go for it, you could well get lucky in Vegas. Even Tiger Woods was a big price when he won here! It was his first professional win, back in 1996, and he went off at a juicy 50/1.

Here we are 13 years on and looking for first season players, like Tiger was in '96, doesn't look a bad plan. The last three winners have all been big priced rookies and I've picked out several players with a similar profile this year. As well as a few others at monster prices and my ole favourite Jeev Milkha Singh, who's desperately trying to secure his PGA Tour card for next season.

Selections:

J M Singh @ [80.0]
Marc Leishman @ [100.0]
Scott Piercy @ [110.0]
D J Trahan @ [120.0]
Leif Olson @ [170.0]
Steve Flesch @ [200.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [240.0]
Peter Lonard @ [280.0]
Will MacKenzie @ [330.0]
Aron Price @ [430.0]

I'll post a halfway update on Saturday morning.

Tags: Alex Noren, Alvaro Quiros, Aron Price, D J Trahan, J M Singh, James Kingston, Leif Olson, Marc Leishman, Matt Bettencourt, Mikko Ilonen, Paul Broadhurst, Peter Hedblom, Peter Lonard, Portugal Masters, Race to Dubai, Robert Karlsson, Ross McGowan, Scott Piercy, Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, Simon Dyson, Steve Flesch, Tiger Woods, Will MacKenzie