The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 March 2010 / 1

It's outsiders all the way for our man at this week's two events, where Steve's gone for the classic mixture of youth and experience....

The evenings are lengthening, flowers are at last appearing, and I even heard the joyous sound of skylarks on my walk today. If all that wasn't enough evidence that winter is at last behind us, the Race to Dubai returns to Europe for the first time in 2010.

This week's event - the fourth staging of the Open de Andalucía, is the first of six European Tour visits to Spain in 2010 and as is so often the case with Spanish events.... we've a new course to contend with. It's almost as if the Tour officials don't care about us punters!

The Parador de Málaga course was last used on Tour way back in 1999, when Miguel Angel Jimenez shot 24 under par to win the now defunct Turespana Masters. Prior to that, Vijay Singh won the same event there with a much lower total of 11 under, back in 1992.

At the 1999 event the most important stat was GIR (Greens in Regulation), and the least important was Driving Accuracy, but it's debatable how reliable such dated info is. For starters the par has changed from 72 to 70, with two par fives reduced to fours, but it certainly suggests that favourite Alvaro Quiros is far too short.

In fact, most of the market leaders look too short and I've scanned further down the list for my pre-event picks.

First up is Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, who showed at the recent WGC-CA Championship that he may be ready to win again soon. Last year was the first since "Gonzo" turned pro that he experienced a winless season and I'd be surprised if he fails to notch in 2010. Odds of [55.0] was just far too big.

Now a very experienced pro, Gregory Bourdy has won in each of the last three seasons, and twice in this part of the world - the Mallorca Classic in '07 and the Estoril Open de Portugal in '08. He never quite threatened the leaderboard last week in Morocco but his eighth at the Dubai Desert Classic on his previous outing was a very solid effort and he certainly warranted support at [55.0].

Gregory Havret, Richard Finch and Jeppe Huldahl have all tasted success on Tour and have all recently shown an upturn in form and have also been backed.

Finally, this week's far leftfield pick is Jorge Campillo, who I backed in October for the Madrid Masters where he did me proud at a big price, eventually fading to 10th after contending early on.

Selections:

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [55.0]
Gregory Bourdy @ [55.0]
Jeppe Huldahl @ [130.0]
Gregory Havret @ [140.0]
Richard Finch @ [140.0]
Jorge Campillo @ [170.0]

This week's US PGA event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, has been staged at Bay Hill for over 30 years now so there's plenty of course form to go on, but I've found it just as tough as the European event to sort out.

I was going to back Nick Watney and Stephen Ames but they're just too short after decent efforts last week, and I was tempted by Phil Mickelson, who's had a disappointing start to the year but he'll surely burst into life soon. He's won here before, as well as finishing second and third so he doesn't lack course form but he's not quite big enough for me to take the risk given how poor he's played so far in 2010.

One player who is big enough to take a risk on is 2005 champion Kenny Perry, who showed a few signs of form early on last week. Now very much a veteran, he just keeps coming back for more. Having won twice in each of the last two seasons, I just wonder if he's being a little bit underestimated at [65.0] this week.

At an even bigger price and at the other end of the age scale, Rickie Fowler makes the portfolio too. His year's form figures are showing a pattern: two missed cuts were followed by a chance to win at the Farmers Insurance, and then a missed cut and a 27th were followed by another chance, this time at the Phoenix Open, where he traded at odds on. He missed the cut the following week at the Honda before finishing 46th last week, so he should be ready to get stuck in this week. Oh, if it were that easy...

But in all seriousness he must have a chance, after his near miss in Phoenix, which meant he'd get into this event, he had this to say about the prospect of playing Bay Hill - "It's one of my favourite spots. I won a junior tournament there back in '06, so I have good memories, and hopefully will get to slap it around there this year."

Ben Crane sneaks into the staking plan once more. Eleventh last year and 10th in 2003 shows he has an aptitude for the course, and having already won this year, he's clearly in decent form.

Finally, at a massive price, Martin Laird makes his debut here. He certainly has the game for Bay Hill where the key stats are Total Driving (Kenny Perry currently tops) and GIR. Laird is fourth and 12th respectfully on those lists which augers well, and given that he's played just nine events since his debut win last October, should he really be trading so high? I don't think so.

Selections:

Kenny Perry @ [65.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [75.0]
Ben Crane @ [90.0]
Martin Laird @ [240.0]

I'll post an update at the halfway stage, either late on Friday night or early Saturday.

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1. Ronsk | 27 March 2010

   Unfortunately I don't look into your BLOG as often as I ought to, but I see you've put Mr Finch up at a nice price... I selected him for the Golf Comp (didn't back him, too busy with Chelters) last week and a missed-cut ensued... It kinda sums-up the way things are panning out for me at the moment, so steer clear of KJ at Arnie's place this week fella, he's obviously got very little chance whatsoever... at least this week anyway!

   GL ;0)

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