The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 03 March 2010 / 4

Our man's nervous about round one in Malaysia, where he may have unearthed a surprise package. He's also questioning his sanity with regards to one of his US picks....

The Race to Dubai restarts this week with the Maybank Malaysian Open at the Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club, which has undergone extensive changes since staging the event back in 2006.

On that occasion, in a weather-shortened 54 hole affair, Charlie Wi flew through the field on the final day to narrowly deny Thongchai Jaidee a third straight win in the event.

Weather delays are commonplace in this part of the world, where afternoon storms are the norm, so with that in mind, with the risk of a reduced event, an advantageous morning start on day one is a big plus, and fortunately three of my picks have one.

Thongchai Jaidee looks a very solid bet this week - his event, course and current form are all excellent and I was happy to take any price in double figures. Since turning 40 in November he's been in sparkling form but somewhat strangely, his game's strongest asset - his accurate iron play, hasn't been fantastic. He ended 2009 - 24th for GIR (Greens in Regulations), yet this year he currently languishes down in 106th! The reason for his fine form is that he's been working extensively on his putting and his scrambling has been superb.

After missing a short putt to get into the play-off at the Dubai Desert Classic, he really should have beaten eventual winner Ian Poulter at the WGC Match Play Championship. Jaidee led the Englishman four times during their quarter-final encounter before nerves appeared to get the better of him.

In short, he's at the top of his game and if he improves his accuracy this week, and gets dialled in to these small greens, he really will take some catching.

I had pondered at length whether to back KJ Choi this week and in the end it was his early tee-time that swung it. He plays in the same three-ball as Jaidee.

I backed him just two weeks ago at a shorter price to win the Mayakoba Classic, where he finished 20th, so I was reluctant to let him go un-backed in what is a very weak field here. He's been in fair form this year, possibly inspired by his win in Malaysia back in October at the Johor Open.

Third up is Wen-Chong Liang, the only one of my picks with a late first day tee-time. He disappointed when I backed him in India a couple of weeks ago but besides that, he's been in decent nick recently, and at almost twice the price he was in India, I couldn't leave him out.

My final selection is far more speculative. Young Thai prospect, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, the World Junior champion in both 2003 and 2004, has only played in Malaysia twice but finished in the top five on both occasions. Fellow countryman, Jaidee said recently that the conditions in Malaysia are very similar to those in Thailand, so it's no surprise that he's played well here before. His recent fourth in the Asian Tour International and seventh place at the Casio World Open in Japan are solid efforts and the 20-year-old could just be a surprise package.

Selections

Thongchai Jaidee @ [11.5]
K J Choi @ [18.0]
Wen-Chong Liang @ [36.0]
Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ [170.0]

The PGA Tour switches to the east coast this week, to Florida, for the Honda Classic, played for the fourth year running at the PGA National Champion Course, Palm Beach Gardens, where my first pick was glaringly obvious.

Taking less than [20.0] about someone who hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2001 is perhaps madness, but that's exactly what I've done.

Robert Allenby lives just 10 minutes from the course so won't lack for support and his record here is truly impressive, he's finished no worse than fifth in three attempts. His nerves when in contention are pretty awful nowadays and he gave up decent chances to win last week and at the recent Farmers Insurance Open. He finished second in Hawaii in January, but I don't think he did too much wrong on that occasion and was unlucky not to win.

Although he hasn't won in the States for a long while, he is a recent winner - having easily won the Australian PGA Championship just before Christmas and I can't imagine him not contending here.

I was going to back Ben Crane but he's withdrawn, so my only other pre-event pick here is Stephen Ames.

He lost the plot during round two at Riviera before rain stopped play and he didn't bother to come back when they resumed. It's unlikely that he was injured because he played at the recent Match Play, where he put up a pretty lame effort against Paul Casey, so it's fair to say his form's not scintillating at present but that's the only negative. Whilst he's never played here before, his game looks made for the place. Already a multiple winner in Florida, I thought he was well worth chancing at [80.0].

Selections

Robert Allenby @ [18.5]
Stephen Ames @ [80.0]

I'll be on tenterhooks tonight, hoping I don't wake up to see that three of my four picks in Malaysia are already out of it! Hopefully they won't be but even if they are, I'll still post an update on Saturday after the completion of round three.

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(4)

1. brian clough | 03 March 2010

   Hi Steve, I make a living laying on horse racing and for a release have got into backing and laying on golf, (it can drive you insane at times). Have to say your info is a massive help and as good as anything out there on golf, (chapman seems to play to safe with picks in racing post). One golfer to watch for this year is Clodomiro Carranza(arg).Keep up the good work.

2. Mike Norman | 03 March 2010

   Hi Steve,

   You mentioned there that the reason you're backing Choi this week is because of his early tee-time. Is this a particular strategy you use, i.e, hope he gets off to a flyer so that you can then lay him off to lock in a profit?

   The reason I ask is because I much prefer an afternoon starter (unless there is some advance weather warning to suggest this may be a disadvantage). I've always preferred backing late/early starters as opposed to early/late starters. I know over the course of a season it probably evens itself out but I've found it to be quite a useful way of punting in terms of looking for the outright winner. Any thoughts?

3. Steven Rawlings | 03 March 2010

   Hi Mike,
   Your last point, that it all evens itself out over the year is probably about right, but I’ve always felt that an early start on day one is a plus, simply because the course has been meticulously prepared for the event and is in perfect condition...By the end of Thursday the greens will be a bit spiked.
   To elaborate on this week in particular though, weather delays are almost guaranteed in Malaysia, with storms rolling in most afternoons. The early starters on day one can get done way before the likely weather delay, get back to the hotel and relax. Whereas the afternoon boys will possibly not get their rounds completed and will need to finish up on Friday morning before they start round two. If the day one early starters are really lucky, they’ll get to play their second rounds early on Saturday, again missing the bad weather.
   Regards
   Steve
   

4. Mike Norman | 06 March 2010

   Thanks for the reply Steve.

   Great shout on the draw this week, it's panned out exactly how you thought it would (Thursday's morning starters having to come back Saturday morning, hence getting the best of the conditions both times).

   Good luck with your selections, at least three are bang in contention and you've surely made a good profit - especially from Aphibarnrat (please tell me that's not pronounced Happy Barn Rat). Ames isn't doing too bad in America either after a stunning second round. Good luck mate.

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