The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Can the King of Cog Hill keep his crown? The Punter thinks he can.....

After spending four years getting used to Kennemer Golf and Country Club, with absolutely no regard for us golf punters, the KLM Open has moved back to its old venue, Hilversumsche, scene of Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 's first win back in 2005 and to complicate matters even further the course has been altered since we last saw it! With the vast majority of the market leaders having little or no course form to evaluate I've found it very hard to come up with any strong fancies so I've plumped for a plethora of long-priced picks for small stakes.

Gonzo was a pick last week when he withdrew during round two and I haven't been able to ascertain the reason, so it's a risky play but prior to that hiccup he was in decent form and putting well. A return to Hilversumsche is sure to bring back happy memories so if he's fit and well, he's too big.

Although Hilversumsche is known as a venue that supposedly suits accuracy over power, when Gonzo won in '05 he ranked 2nd for Driving Distance and 2002 champ Tobias Dier topped that stat. Given that quirk, Alvaro Quiros at [50.0] had to be included.

I thought Seung-yul Noh might have been a few ticks shorter than he is after his excellent 4th placed finish last week and the same can be said about the in-form Brett Rumford. After being so cruelly denied by Edoardo Molinari in Scotland it was no surprise to see him a little jaded for the first few days in Switzerland but his final round 64, elevating him into 13th place, showed he's not gone off the boil yet. It's not all good news though; in his two previous visits here he failed to make the weekend.

Gregory Bourdy showed his first bit of form in a while at the Johnnie Walker Championship two weeks ago, before fading on day four and he finished in the top-25 here on his only previous outing in '05. Whilst Freddie Andersson-Hed scraped in courtesy of his recent top-ten in the Czech Republic and his top-ten here back in '03.

Thomas Bjorn wasn't awful last week (15th) and the rest are all very long long-longshots. Robert Coles has plenty of course form and comes here fresh from securing his playing rights for next year, thanks to his 5th placed finish last week. James Kingston won in his native South Africa less than a month ago and as a multiple winner was simply too big and last up is Marcus Brier. He has three top-20 finishes here, including a 4th place in '05 and I felt he was worth including at a monster price.

Selections:

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [48.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [50.0]
Seung-yul Noh @ [55.0]
Brett Rumford @ [70.0]
Gregory Bourdy @ [70.0]
Freddie Andersson-Hed @ [85.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [150.0]
Robert Coles @ [160.0]
James Kingston @ [250.0]
Markus Brier @ [330.0]

In the US this week it's the third event of the FedEx Cup play-off series - the BMW Championship at Cog Hill and I can't complain about a lack of course form to ponder here. Under its various sponsors, it's the oldest event on the USPGA tour and it's been played at the Dubsdread course since 1991 and one man owns the place...

He occasional lets Jim Furyk get his feet under the table (his course form is very solid too) but the King of Cog Hill is without doubt Tiger Woods with five wins (including last year by 8 strokes!), two seconds and two other top 10 finishes from 11 starts. It's an extremely impressive record and I thought he'd be no bigger than [7.0] after a couple of improved efforts, so I was delighted with his early price.

Only last week I felt I wasn't prepared to risk money on Tiger just yet, but viewpoints are always price dependant and last week's effort looked like another step in the right direction. Besides, it's no bad thing to be prepared to change your opinion when it comes to golf betting and I've done than in respect of most of my picks this week!

Last week I had the bright idea of backing Paul Casey and Justin Rose, mistakenly believing that their exclusion from the Ryder Cup could spur them on. Having seen Edoardo Molinari and Luke Donald finish 2nd having received wildcard picks, I've turned last week's theory on its head and backed all four of Corey Pavin's Captain's Picks - Woods, Zach Johnson, Stewart Cink and Rickie Fowler.

I've also backed a couple of rank outsiders (why not after Charley Hoffman's win on Monday) in Carl Pettersson and Stephen Ames, who both boast some decent course form (Ames won here in '04).

Selections:

Tiger Woods @ [8.6]
Zach Johnson @ [46.0]
Stewart Cink @ [65.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [110.0]
Carl Pettersson @ [200.0]
Stephen Ames @ [200.0]

I'll post an update on both events on Saturday morning.

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