The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 May 2009 / 1

It's been tough recently for Steve Rawlings, who's enduring a bad run which was topped by Zach Johnson's blow-up at Quail Hollow. Will it turn around this week?

Mondays are usually study days, but not this week. Other than putting in an ambitious back of Phil Mickelson in the Players' Championship at [14.0], I did nothing. The Zach Johnson collapse still weighed heavy so the day was spent with the family, far away from the PC and the formbook.

When I did turn my attention to this week's events I was perturbed to see that the Italian Open is moving to a new venue, after five years at Castello di Tolcinasco.

A cynic might think the shift to Turin is an attempt to aid the Molinari brothers and it's easy enough to argue a case for Francesco at least, who won this event three years ago. He's in fine form and playing on his home course is certainly a positive but his price of [15.0] reflects that. I've passed him over for the time being as he very often starts slowly and I was somewhat alarmed by his erratic final round last week.

The impeccable six under par back nine showed what he can do when he gets on a roll but the error-strewn six over front nine also shows how frustrating a performer he can be.

With little to go on I've backed just two players from the start - Alvaro Quiros, who gets another chance after last week's erratic performance and Seve Benson, who has already tasted success at the venue, having won the Piemonte Open on the Challenge Tour here a year ago. He shot the course record of 62 in the process. A fact I wasn't aware of until late last night, I've certainly been a bit slack on this one...

Selections:

Alvaro Quiros @ [27.0]
Seve Benson @ [100.0]

I was pleasantly surprised to see my Lefty wager partly matched at [14.0] and was more than happy to take [13.0] on the remainder, then I started to wonder whether I'd done the right thing at all.

After closer inspection I'm not massively confident about his chances, he's in decent enough form but his course form isn't scintillating and when he won here in '07 everything clicked, particularly his putting, but the price is fair and I'll let it ride.

Tiger Woods' has drifted out this week and I'm not the least bit surprised. He was far from impressive last week and his sole win here in 2001 is scant return from 11 visits. If it were a less prestigious event I'm pretty sure it would have been dropped from his schedule years ago.

The first time Zach Johnson played Sawgrass he shot 65, so his subsequent form here is a little disappointing. Last week's catastrophe will take some getting over but I'm going to stick by him, I'm convinced there's more to come from the 2007 Masters champ.

I've also backed some big outsiders, the first of which is Martin Kaymer. The German finally found some form last week, finishing tied 11th. This is his Players' debut this week so it's asking a lot to see him contend but he's a class act.

J B Holmes has improved his finishing position here each time he's teed it up and he very nearly secured his third win at the Houston Open a month ago, succumbing to Paul Casey in a play-off.

Ben Crane has also improved his placing each year and I really don't know what Y E Yang has to do to get recognised in the market.

After two wins in the last two months the price about Thongchai Jaidee is a bit insulting. It takes a bit of a leap of faith to visualise him winning, but [420.0] is a huge price.

Finally, I'm a big fan of the significant birthday theory and only last week we saw Thomas Levet win at the age of 40. There's been a few shocks here over the years and if Parker McLachlin lifts the trophy on his 30th birthday on Sunday that would certainly rank as another.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ an average of [13.5]
Zach Johnson @ [75.0]
Martin Kaymer @ [130.0]
J B Holmes @ [170.0]
Ben Crane @ [280.0]
Y E Yang @ [300.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [420.0]
Parker McLachlin @ [850.0]

I'm really looking forward to the Players' - it's a fantastic tournament and a brilliant spectacle but after the last month or so, all I want it to be is profitable.

I'll post an update on Saturday morning.

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1. £10 Punter | 08 May 2009

   Good luck with the Crane! Seven under after the first round...

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