The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 14 May 2008 /

Our man is swerving the home favourites in the Irish Open betting and has a quartet of long shots in the US

The stunning Adare Manor Hotel Resort hosts this year's Irish Open for the second year in succession. Used for the first time last year, it proved to be a very stern test with only three players breaking par. Top of the pile was Padraig Harrington, ending a 25 year wait for a home grown winner.

Reports suggest the rough won't be quite as penal this year, nor the weather quite as wild. But to counteract that, organisers may well use the longer tees that that weren't used last year due to the tough conditions. The ability to drive it straight was vital last year and I can see it being just as key this, so none of my four picks are too far down the driving accuracy list. In short it won't be a turkey shoot like it was in Italy last week.

So, will we see a repeat win for the Irish? Well there have already been four Irish winners on the tour this year so expectations from the home crowd will be understandably high. But personally I'm swerving them all, Harrington looked ragged last week at a venue he's performed well at in the past and the pressure of defending will be a heavy burden to carry. At a single figure price he makes no appeal at all. I fancy both Darren Clarke and Paul McGinley to go best of the rest but they're short enough for me considering the pressure they'll be under and given that neither man gets his head in front too often.

My first selection is John Bickerton @ [130.0]. Already a winner this year at Leopard Creek he looked to be in decent nick when he finished tied 7th last time out at the BMW Asian Open and having narrowly missed out on a top-20 place here last year the price is more than fair.

My second pick could be construed as an odd one. Francesco Molinari must have been desperately disappointed after his missed cut last week. I know I was after backing him @ [20.0]! I've taken the viewpoint that the experience could spur him on to a much improved effort this week. Twisted logic maybe, but at [95.0] and having played well here last year when finishing tied 7th I think he's worth taking a chance with.

Mark Brown, also backed @ [95.0] is an accurate driver in the form of his life and finally I've had a small bet on Simon Wakefield @ [250.0], mainly on the strength of last year's third place. He's not in great form this year but has picked up slightly in his last couple of appearances.

The AT&T at Sugarloaf has a distinctly second division feel about it after last week's stellar event in the States. I have found myself dissecting the field into three sets of player profiles: short priced 'names' that have fared well here in the past; promising youngsters requiring a leap of faith to back and established players that have gone well here but have probably underperformed on the whole.

In the first set, Cink has to be considered. He has a house nearby and is in a rich vein of form but he finds it very hard to get that all important win. Zach Johnson's form figures here are impressive, as are Retief Goosen's, but at less than [20.0] neither really appeal. I think Ben Crane should do well but having backed him regularly at at least [100.0] and often at above [200.0] I can't possibly back him as short as he is this week [24.0]

Of the young guns, I considered the likes of Nicholas Thompson, Jason Day and Parker McLachlin but in the end I've decided to concentrate my efforts in the bargain bucket section here too. My main pick is Troy Matteson @ [70.0], I backed him here last year and he hit the front early on during the final round. Hopefully he can go a couple of places better this year.

I've also backed three very big priced players with bits and pieces of course form. They are Charles Warren @ [200.0], Rich Beem @ [260.0] and Jay Williamson, also at [260.0].

No really strong fancies this week so small stakes at big prices and I'll look to get involved as events unfold.

I'll post an update on developments on Saturday morning.

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