The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Is Ernie in the twilight of his career? Steve is giving him one last chance in Dubai this week...

It's the last leg of the 'Gulf Swing' on the European Tour this week, with the 20th staging of the Dubai Desert Classic and I've picked out just one selection from the start and it may seem a bit hypocritical.

I've been pretty scathing of the Big Easy of late. I don't trust him anymore but how could anyone? He's passed up plenty of chances since his return from injury and it's hard to punt hard cash on someone you don't have faith in but he has an amazing record here. Since finishing eighth on his debut in 1993 he's never finished out of the first three and he's won it three times in nine further starts. Quite incredible figures that simply cant be ignored.

He's been disappointing since having every chance at the halfway stage of the Mercedes, where he went from trailing the eventual winner Geoff Ogilvy by just two strokes at halfway, to trailing him by ten after round three and it was all down to some woeful putting.

He couldn't lift himself in time to make amends at the Hawaiian Open a week later, another venue he has a great record at, but he hadn't played Waialae since he was in his pomp. In contrast, he hasn't missed a tournament here in seven years.

Also on the negative side, is the poor performance last week when he needed a final round 68 just to haul himself up in to a tie for 31st. But nobody who travelled to Qatar from Hawaii did any good. Thanks, I'm sure, to the lengthy journey and considerable time difference, and to make matters worse for Ernie he went via London to drop off the family!

One positive from last week was his driving; he was third for accuracy off the tee, which will stand him in good stead here. By all accounts the rough is up and wayward driving will be punished far more than it was last week.

Having weighed up all the pros and cons I've taken the plunge, with fingers firmly crossed. I know his run here has to come to an end sooner rather than later but I'm hoping he'll get that flat-stick working and be crowned the King of Dubai, just one more time.

Selections:

Ernie Els @ [12.5]
Ernie Els - Top 5 @ an average of [3.40]
Ernie Els - Top 10 @ an average of [2.12]

The other event this week is the FBR Open in Arizona, where I'm siding with another course specialist who's also slipping down the world rankings and failing to close out events with increasing regularity.

Paul Krishnamurty's piece yesterday makes an excellent and very logical case for not backing Phil Mickelson this week but, for my sins, I am.

I agree entirely that he's at a crossroads in his career but don't necessarily agree on which road he'll take. I'm a massive Phil fan, thanks to many years of profiting from his successes, or even just his close calls, particularly in the first few months of the year. Indeed, in this event last year I backed him at [9.0] and layed him at [1.14] to secure a tidy profit, before he succumbed to JB Holmes in the play-off.

Last year was the first year in five that he didn't provide me with a healthy profit, and even then it was only a marginal loss, so he gets another chance this week at [11.0]. Hopefully we'll see a very hungry Mickelson this week; he must have been bitterly disappointed by his end to last year too.

I've also backed Zach Johnson again. Considering how well he held his nerve in Hawaii and how well he's held his form in the past, I can't understand the drift and have had to back him.

Another player far too big is Stephen Ames. After an encouraging start to his season last week he shouldn't be as big as [60.0].

And last up is a big outsider from leftfield; Steve Flesch has lost his way a bit after his collapse at Augusta last year but two top four finishes here in '04 and '05 make him worth a poke at [300.0].

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ [11.0]
Zach Johnson @ [40.0]
Stephen Ames @ [60.0]
Steve Flesch @ [300.0]

I'll post an update on proceedings on Saturday after round three in Dubai.

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