The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 22 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Steve Rawlings has found reason to swerve all the favourites on both tours this week.

The Race to Dubai stops off at the Korean island of Jeju this week for the Ballantine's Championship, won last year by Graeme McDowell after an epic battle with Jeev Milkha Singh. The pair had a terrific duel - both finished on 24 under par, seven clear of third placed Paul McGinley - and it took a sublime seven iron to within a foot on the third play-off hole to separate them. I remember it well, I was on Singh.

Although backing defending champions isn't a profitable strategy, I was tempted by McDowell. He can have nothing but positive vibes about returning here after such a memorable success but I wanted [26.0] and can't entertain him at less than [20.0].

Of the main protagonists, Stenson doesn't win anywhere near enough for me, Els' game looks in serious decline and Westwood never makes any appeal given his propensity to throw away winning chances.

After finishing second in his last two events Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano must have a shout but his putting was so ugly last week he's passed over too.

I was more tempted by Thongchai Jaidee at [40.0]; he's hitting fairways with smooth regularity but his putting was even worse than Gonzo's last week. If, and it's a big if, he gets the putter working the price will look huge, but after much deliberation he's been ignored too and I've backed just two players.

First up is Prayad Marksaeng, who would have been a fair price at [40.0] odd, so I've had a decent bet at [50.0]. He missed the cut at Augusta after a second round 84 but his first round 70 was more in line with his current form, coming hard on the heels of two seconds in Thailand and Malaysia and an excellent 13th place finish in the CA Championship.

My only other pick is Korean Sang-Moon Bae, whose last five outings in his homeland have yielded two wins, a fifth, a sixth and an 18th placed finish in this event last year and I was particularly impressed with his win in the Korea Open last May, when he held of the likes of Anthony Kim and Ian Poulter.

Selections:

Prayed Marksaeng @ [50.0]
Sang-Moon Bae @ [100.0]

The US event this week is the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and it's a tough one to fathom. Five of the last six winners were winning their first event on tour and it's only the fourth staging at TPC Louisiana, so course form is sparse.

A couple of obvious 'outsiders' I wanted to back are Woody Austin and previous winner Tim Petrovic but after decent displays last week they're far too short and I also liked Scott Piercy, but not at under [100.0]. All three are at least 30% shorter than I wanted so I've rejected them and had a complete rethink, coming up with some very speculative opening gambits.

K J Choi, backed at [50.0], has missed his last three cuts, in fact he hasn't been in great form all year but does have decent GIR stats, which has been a key stat here in the past, and he won the event back in 2002.

I'm sticking with Ben Crane, who last week was third in GIR but putted badly, but he's still in great form.

Y E Yang has played in just three events since he won the Honda, he's played poorly admittedly, but should he be [340.0]?

Last up is last year's Nationwide Tour's leading money winner, Matt Bettencourt, who's really struggled on the main tour but will hopefully be inspired by his third place finish at the Louisiana Open, back on the Nationwide Tour, just a few weeks ago. He may not be inspired by a return to the state but at the price it won't be too painful if he doesn't.

Selections:

K J Choi @ [50.0]
Ben Crane @ [85.0]
Y E Yang @ [340.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [810.0]

I'll post an update on both events on Saturday morning.

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