The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 01 October 2008 / 1

Steve makes his early selections from the betting on this week's two big golf tournaments.

This week's European Tour event is the Alfred Dunhill Links pro-am, which is played over three courses, St Andrews (twice), Kingsbarns, and Carnoustie.

It's not one of my favourite events with rounds typically taking about six hours and TV coverage being sparse, with Sky tending to show the play at just one venue each day. To make matters worse there will be plenty of coverage of the amateurs, I wouldn't mind a few bob at evens that Bruce Critchley will swoon over JP McManus at least half a dozen times, describing him as 'one of the last gentleman gamblers' or some such nonsense.

Anyway, that's enough slating of the as yet unscreened coverage, who's going to win? Or should I say, who do I think will win?

First up is the Big Easy, Ernie Els, who has very consistent form here and is in pretty good nick at the moment. He looked like he was going to nick the title of Dougherty last year until he somehow putted into a bunker on, I think, the 15th hole, stopping his charge abruptly.

My second selection is Henrik Stenson, who also has an impressive bank of form here and is only slightly less blindingly obvious than Ernie.

I've backed a few outsiders too, one of which is last week's winner, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, who was a selection last year. He was right there after two rounds but a poor third round at Carnoustie blew him off course. I don't think the forecast high winds on Friday, and to a lesser extent Saturday, will help him as much as it will my two main picks but he certainly shouldn't be a triple figure price.

Four of my picks appear to have the favourable draw, playing St Andrews on Friday. While Marc Warren will be at Canoustie and Simon Wakefield looks a loser already, having to play the most exposed course, Kingsbarns in the forecast high winds.

What does go against my main picks though is that in the seven years the event has been staged all the winners have come from the British Isles.

Selections:

Ernie Els @ [14.0]
Henrik Stenson @ [24.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [120.0]
Marc Warren @ [280.0]
Markus Brier @ [350.0]
Simon Wakefield @ [430.0]

The second event of the Fall Series on the US Tour is the Turning Stone Resort Championship at Atunyote Golf Club. Although this is only the second staging of this event the course also hosted the BC Open in 2006, won by John Rollins.

My first pick is last years winner Steve Flesch who I thought was just too generously priced up by someone on Monday at [50.0].

His victory in this last year was his second win of the season having earlier won the Reno-Tahoe Open and I've backed Parker McLachlin to match his achievement this year.

He was also fifth here last year and there definitely seems to be quite a correlation between the two venues, Rollins has form at the Reno as well as here for example.

Also in the portfolio is last time out winner, Will MacKenzie, who is also a former Reno-Tahoe winner and like Gonzo in Europe shouldn't be a triple figure price. If Vijay and Camilo can get it done back-to-back then why not Will?

There's also a few outsiders selected to bulk up my initial salvo.

Selections:

Steve Flesch @ [50.0]
Will MacKenzie @ [85.0]
Parker McLachlin @ [85.0]
Martin Laird @ [120.0]
Richard S. Johnson @ [220.0]
Y.E. Yang @ [400.0]

I will post an update at the halfway stage in both events on Saturday morning.

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1. yvette | 02 October 2008

   steve,we have been trying to contact you are you alive?

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