The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 08 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Alfred Dunhill's been kind to Steve recently, so who's he putting his faith in this year?

The 2010 Race to Dubai kicks off this week with the Alfred Dunhill Championship at the spectacular Leopard Creek Golf Club in South Africa and it's an event I've had plenty of success at recently, having backed the last three winners in-running.

I have fond memories of Alvaro Quiros' debut success three years ago, as I'd somehow latched on to him after day one, at a generous [80.0], and last year's win by Richard Sterne was a fine result too -having backed fourth placed finisher Thomas Aiken at [110.00] pre-event and having layed him off at as low as [1.23], in addition to backing Sterne at [6.6]. But the events of two years ago really will take some forgetting...

I was away with family for the weekend and what a weekend it was. I'd had a decent bet on the standing dish in the Australian PGA - Peter Lonard, who duly obliged and before the event here, I'd backed Ernie Els at [4.5], then after round one, I'd added John Bickerton at [60.0]. On Sunday morning, once I knew Lonard was in the bag, I phoned up Betfair (couldn't get my laptop to work) and layed some of my Els bet back at [1.23].

I didn't actually see what happened to Ernie on the last hole, a friend talked me through it on the phone, but boy did I enjoy it.

Anyway, that's more than enough after-timing and reminiscing for now, on with this year, where unsurprisingly Ernie Els starts as favourite again, and in contrast to fellow columnist Paul Krishnamurty; I felt he was close to becoming a pick. I agree wholeheartedly that the Big Easy lacks the mental fortitude of old but his course form is very strong and had he been a point bigger he'd have made my portfolio. He goes off late on Thursday and if he starts ok, I may yet back him. But I'll certainly be looking to lay plenty back if I do.

After much deliberation, only three players have been backed before the off and first up is Anders Hansen. He's making his Leopard Creek debut this week but he's had a few placed efforts in this event at the old venue -. In fact he's shown a real liking for South Africa - wins in the Joburg Open and Vodacom Championship, together with a 6th place in the Telkom PGA this year, see him atop of the South African money list. I'm not a big Hansen fan and don't trust his temperament much either but [26.0] looked a bit big.

I may be mad after last week's poor effort in Sun City, but I can't let Richard Sterne go un-backed. He had an eight and a seven at the par five 18th last year and still won. I know he's erratic and it's a risky play but [32.0] looked just too big to ignore.

My only other pick is Garth Mulroy, who comes here fresh from his promotion to the PGA Tour, having finished 14th on the Nationwide Tour money list, and having won in the States in April - at the South Georgia Classic. He's had plenty of decent efforts in his homeland and looks a very fair price.

Selections:
Anders Hansen @ [26.0]
Richard Sterne @ [32.0]
Garth Mulroy @ [46.0]

Sadly there's no Peter Lonard at this year's Australian PGA, he's out with a bad back and with the event on late and not televised, I've just thrown a few pounds at Michael Sim. I can easily see either Robert Allenby or Adam Scott following up last week's success' or Geoff Ogilvy bouncing back to form to retain the title but hot prospect Sim looks a bit more reasonably priced this week so I've taken a small interest.

Selection:
Michael Sim @ [21.0]

I wouldn't normally bother with a tournament like the Shark Shootout but given it's live on Eurosport I thought I'd have a little gander at this three day event, which starts on Friday, and I think I've found a smidgen of value.

Favourites Ian Poulter and Ross Fisher are in great form and have played together a few times now, but they've had a hectic time of it lately and look just a shade short.

The pairing I like is Jerry Kelly and Steve Stricker. The Wisconsin men have been pals for many a year and they showed how well they can click when playing together at this year's Deutsche Bank Championship - paired together, both played really well in round three.

Had they bettered their poor first round 70 here last year, when they finished fifth, they may well have been a threat and if they can start a bit quicker this time around they may prove to be a bit of value at around [9.0].

Selection:
Steve Stricker/Jerry Kelly @ above [8.4]

I'll post an update either late on Friday, or early on Saturday morning.

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