The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 04 January 2011 /

Steve looks to the Open Champ and four trend-breaking Americans to get 2011 off to a flyer....

The kids are back at school, the tree is almost bare, the only chocolates left are those that nobody wants, and ambitious claims of belt tightening, both literal and metaphorical, have been made. It's all over for another year and its back to reality; but it's not all doom and gloom because, after a fortnight off, golf is back.

First up this week is the Race to Dubai event, the Africa Open - now in its third year, where the two market leaders are Retief Goosen, who won the first staging in 2009, before it was a co-sanctioned event, and defending champion Charl Schwartzel. It's not exactly a tough job to make a case for that pair but for my money, third favourite Louis Oosthuizen looks, or maybe I should say looked, the value play.

The Open champ has shortened up considerably as the week's gone on but I'm not surprised. It was impossible not to be impressed with the state of his game at the last event - the South African Open, where he played impeccable golf from tee to green but couldn't buy a putt on the newly laid greens. If the holiday hiatus hasn't thrown his game astray and he can get a few more putts to drop he'll take a lot of beating on a course that should suit. He could have played in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions on the PGA Tour instead and I'm pretty sure he'll be trying his utmost here.

In addition to Louis I've thrown in three fun-priced rags in Adilson Da Silva, Michael Anthony and Simon Wakefield.

Selections:

Louis Oosthuizen @ [11.0]
Adilson Da Silva @ [150.0]
Michael Anthony @ [310.0]
Simon Wakefield @ [350.0]

Without doubt, the best event this week is the traditional season opener in Hawaii, where 34 of last year's PGA Tour winners line up for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. This will be the 13th straight staging at the Plantation Course in Kapalua so there are plenty of clues to help us.

Of paramount importance is putting, with no winner in the last 12 years ranking any worse than fourth in Total Putting. It isn't the be all and end all though; Brian Gay and Nathan Green tied second for putting last year but finished 21st and 22nd respectively. It's a long course and big-hitters have a considerable advantage. It's also worth being wary of first-timers, as debutants don't fare too well. It's an undulating, wide open and often breezy track that can take some getting to know. And finally, it's now nine years since an American won the event. So you want to whack it miles, putt well, have been here before and been born outside of the USA. So with all that in mind I've backed four Americans, one of which is a poor putting debutant!

If I'm honest here, I couldn't fancy anyone strongly at the prices. Geoff Ogilvy attempts to emulate fellow Aussie Stuart Appleby, who won the event in 2004, '05 and '06, and win his third straight title, but I dithered far too long deciding whether to back him or not on Monday and now he's too short.

Adam Scott was on my radar too but looks just a shade short, and I wouldn't want to put anyone off past winners Ernie Els or Jim Furyk but for my starters for ten, I've scanned further down the list in search of bigger prices.

On his sole start to date here in 2009, Anthony Kim finished a very promising second. There's a distinct possibility that he'll still be rusty, as he's not had many starts, following his lengthy break after surgery in May, but there were encouraging signs at the end of last year and at [40.0], given how this track looks ideal, he's worth chancing.

Next up is the poor putting debutant American who on all known stats should have no chance - Bubba Watson. I think something finally clicked with this truly talented and gifted lefty last year and I think the market is still underestimating him. He'll give himself plenty of chances and if he can roll a few putts in early and get the confidence going he could just cause a surprise.

Ryan Palmer won in Hawaii last year at the Sony Open. He's a fairly long hitter, a decent putter and has played here twice before. He didn't exactly set the world alight but many a winner has needed a few 'back in the pack' spins here before going on to win and he's probably the best value on offer.

And finally, at a monstrous price, Matt Bettencourt also ticks the big hitter and decent putter boxes.

Selections:

Anthony Kim @ [40.0]
Bubba Watson @ [50.0]
Ryan Palmer @ [65.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [250.0]

If you haven't already entered the Betfair Ten to Follow Tipping Competition, you've got until midnight on Wednesday to do so. It's free, quick and easy to enter, and you may just bag yourself £300 for this year's Christmas -it'll be here before you know it...

I'll be back on Saturday morning for an update on proceedings this week.

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