The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 14 January 2009 /

Steve has swerved the market principals in the big events on either tour in favour of those offering a little more value...

A couple of really good tournaments this week, starting with the Abu Dhabi Championship, which kicks off the Desert Swing on the European Tour.

It's the fourth staging of the event and although it's a new event a few patterns are emerging. Firstly, course form doesn't seem massively important, last years winner, Martin Kaymer, won following a missed cut the year before and Paul Casey missed the cut last year after winning in '07. With an eighth place and two seconds, Henrik Stenson has by far the most consistent form here, but he's way too short.

One trend is definitely emerging, players need good Greens In Regulation (GIR) stats to compete in Abu Dhabi, and I've used this fact as my guiding light when selecting most of my initial picks.

Firstly, those that didn't quite make the portfolio, starting with young Rory McIlroy, who is progressing extremely impressively and looks sure to compete but is simply too short. I also think Sergio Garcia will contend and he's very nearly a big enough price to finally get my attention but not quite. I'm still not 100% sure about him when in the mix.

First of those that did make the blue button is Robert Allenby. Formally one of the game's most clinical closers he's turned into a jittery player in contention and he hasn't won on US soil for nearly eight years. On a more positive note he was in great form last year, was second on the USPGA Tour for GIR and finished the season in an impressive 11th place on the money list. He had a turbulent time in his homeland before Christmas with his mother's terminal illness having an obvious affect on his game and I fancy he'll appreciate not having the pressure of trying to win on the USPGA Tour or in his homeland. If he improves his putting a bit I think he'll be bang there.

I've also backed Jeev Milkha Singh, who looks a very fair price give the form he was in prior to Christmas, I know he's missed the cut in Abu Dhabi on his two previous attempts but as stated I don't think that's as big an issue here as it would be elsewhere.

After that it's a few outsiders who haven't been playing too badly that have excellent GIR stats, Francesco Molinari and Johan Edfors and a couple of Spaniards who are just too big to be ignored.

Selections:

Robert Allenby @ [32.0]
Jeev Milkha Singh @ [65.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [85.0]
Francesco Molinari @ [100.0]
Johan Edfors @ [130.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [150.0]

In common with the Abu Dhabi event the USPGA Tour's Sony Open also has a tip-top field. Vying for favouritism are last weeks winner Geoff Ogilvy and course specialist Ernie Els. Although history dictates that it doesn't usually pay to scan too far down the betting list here I've bypassed these two. Ogilvy looks short enough, back-to-back winners are rare and this is an arguably stronger field than last week. As for Ernie, well I've virtually given up on him, which is quite sad really as he's been a favourite of mine for many years but the hard-nosed truth is he really struggles to get the job done these days and his putting at times last week was atrocious.

I couldn't ignore Steve Stricker's two tied fourth finishers here in the last two years or how close he ran Vijay Singh at the Chevron World Challenge just before Christmas. He's not a player I back often and I'm not a big fan, but [24.0] was a shade too big.

My big fancy for the week (cue the missed cut!) is Zach Johnson. The obvious pointer is his performance last weekend, 17-under-par for his last 37 holes is going some, but on top of that, even though he's not exactly taken the place apart before now, his game really should suit this course.

Sean O'Hair is a player I really like and I thought he would have won more than he has by now. He also did well last weekend and I'm prepared to take a chance with him too.

Last up is George McNeill who, like Stricker, catches the eye with his recent course form. He also finished last season well and looked a little big at [80.0].

Selections:

Steve Stricker @ [24.0]
Zach Johnson @ [32.0]
Sean O'Hair @ [38.0]
George McNeill @ [80.0]

I'll post an update on proceedings on Saturday.

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