The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2011 /

I know it's Monday afternoon but we're not done yet! Can Mark Wilson hang on in Phoenix?

14.45 - February 7th, 2011

This year's WM Phoenix Open is turning into a disaster for yours truly and I was going to leave the event alone today but Tommy 'Two Gloves' Gainey looks to have drifted a bit too much and I've had a very small bet at [10.0].

The action gets back under way at 4.00pm and is live on Sky Sports.

13.48 - February 6, 2011

I really thought I was about to collect on Alvaro Quiros but just as he got to within one of Thomas Bjorn, who'd pared his way round stoically up until the 15th hole, it all fell apart.

Quiros three-putted to make bogey and Bjorn made birdie and that was that. Having built up a really good bet on Quiros over the first few days I was able to lay more back again today, at [5.0], [3.8] and finally [2.74]. It resulted in a profitable tournament and has more than covered my first bet on Phil Mickelson, at [8.8], for the Masters but I feel very deflated.

The Spaniard was matched at as low as [2.34] and I felt he'd done all the hard work. Oh well. Bjorn, on the other hand, was the first shock winner of the 2011 European Tour season and was matched before the off at a massive [490.0].

The action in the States resumes at 3:30pm, where I've got a few live chances. Mickelson recovered from a sluggish start yesterday and bets on Ogilvy, Crane, Yang and even Bettencourt are not without a chance.

14:00 - February 5, 2011

That has to go down as one of the worst couple of golf hours I've experienced in quite some time. Alvaro Quiros, backed at [20.0] before the off and topped up on at [50.0] yesterday, looked to have done me proud. Unusually for him he didn't drop a shot all day and his six under par 66 saw him move right up the leaderboard. As planned, I layed some back at [7.4] but after that it all went pear-shaped....

I was a bit too premature getting Rafael Cabrera-Bello onside at [55.0]. He was already done for the day and a shot behind Quiros, and with the leaders and Robert Karlsson about to play the tough stretch of holes between 12 and 15 it felt like the right time to get him covered.

Quiros was shortening, and reached a low of [5.7]. My other pre-event pick in the mix, Louis Oosthuizen, had just birdied the 14th hole to reach -5 and he was layed at a low of [6.6]. I was in a great position and all I needed was for the leaders not do anything daft coming in, and then it all disintegrated before my eyes.

Oosthuizen continued to putt like a blind man and missed three very good chances on his last three holes. Karlsson, after looking all over the place on the front nine, went bonkers with the putter and made five birdies in his last seven holes, Thomas Bjorn birdied four of his last five holes, Markus Brier held it together really well and holed a few great putts and my book now looks nowhere near as good as it did two hours ago. In fact I think I'm out of the game now.

With the wind due to get up tomorrow, great wind player Bjorn leads on -11, from another great wind player in Brier, with Karlsson, having looked completely out of it halfway through round two, a further two back. Quiros is now fully five back and trading at [20.0]. Oosty's out to [34.0] and on the phone to his Mum - to see if she can come and putt for him tomorrow and Cabrera-Bello's trading at twice the price I took!

I wouldn't advocate a wager on any of the front three but one of them will surely hang on. I can't see them all throwing their chance away but maybe I'm just a bit downbeat after a poor couple of hours.

In the States, where the stagger is yet to unwind and where half the field haven't started round two, we're heading for a Monday finish.

I've added Geoff Ogilvy at [9.20] and Charley Hoffman at [50.0].

The one I really want to disappear is joint-leader Mark Wilson. He led at halfway last year before plummeting down the leaderboard over the weekend. I backed him at [350.0] before the off 12 months ago and I haven't had a bean on him this time around.

I could just be heading for a torrid couple of results. I sincerely hope not!

16.20 - February 4, 2011

We've now reached halfway at the Qatar Masters and I have to wonder whether I'm being a bit over cautious after last week's debacle, when I misjudged the weather, jumped in far too early and finished up with a hefty loss.

The leader with two rounds to go here is Markus Brier - who's only in the line-up thanks to an invite. He started the week as a [1000.00] no hoper and how I've not backed him in-running I don't really know.

I've been a fan of the Austrian for years and know that he's a great wind player, capable of the odd win, but I just kept turning my nose up at big enough prices and now I'm rueing my guarded stance. Is he value now at around [11.0]? I'm not sure he is...

The current favourite is Robert Karlsson, who at -5 is just two behind Brier. He's another one I should perhaps have onside by now but like Brier, he too makes little appeal at the current odds.

I'm not completely out of the game - on paper Open champ Louis Oosthuizen is well within reach on -2 but I've been very disappointed by his whole game so far this week and his lofty position is as much to do with his good draw as the quality of his play. Once again his putting has been poor.

And I've also got Alvaro Quiros on level par. That looks like a long way back but winners can come from way off the halfway pace here. Both recent winners Adam Scott and Ernie Els were seven back and winners from three, four and five back at this stage are commonplace, and this leaderboard is hardly strong. I've topped up on Alvaro at [50.0], with a view to laying some back at shorter and making further plays over the weekend.

Over in Phoenix the tournament is running way behind. There was a four hour delay for frost yesterday and there's talk of similar problems today.

My main pick, Phil Mickelson has started well and is two off the lead after shooting -4. He looks to be in fine fettle and is talking his chances up too but he'll need to stop doing daft things like missing for par from just three feet, as he did on his final hole last night!

My biggest concern is how far back he'll be when he tees off in round two, which looks likely to be tomorrow now. Dan Geraghty's main pick Dustin Johnson has only played five holes but he's already alongside Lefty. If he keeps pressing he could be someway clear of my man after he's played two rounds and even if he doesn't, it's hard to see that someone won't be. Then there's the danger of an all too eager to catch up Phil making a mess of things. If he plays within himself though, and in the fashion he has for his last five rounds he won't be far away come Sunday night.

Last minute addition Ben Crane fared well shooting -5 and I also added Matt Bettencourt in-running, who shot -4, at [95.0].

17.45 - February 3rd, 2011

I've had a busy day away from the golf today, so I haven't seen much of the coverage. I did watch the first hour or so first thing this morning though and it wasn't much fun. One of my picks, Louis Oosthuizen, must have played well to keep a bogey off his card through 13 holes but the rot set in once the coverage started and I had to endure him bogeying three off his last five holes to drop back to a score of +1. That wasn't a disaster though and he's only four shots behind pace-setters Retief Goosen, who shot an impressive 69, and Niclas Fasth, who still has two holes of round one to play. Play was suspended due to fading light.

It's not been the greatest of starts for my picks with Alvaro Quiros the best of the rest but he's way back in a tie for 52nd after limping around in the afternoon winds in 75 strokes.

I'm a bit disappointed I didn't back Robert Karlsson, who I had considered carefully before the off. He's a shot off the lead and vying for favouritism with the Goose but I'm not tempted to get him onside right now. He performed minor miracles to hold his score together and played very scrappily over the last half a dozen holes.

I haven't made any further plays in Qatar but I have added a couple more in Phoenix, even though they still haven't started, thanks to a delay of 3 ½ hours due to frost. For some bizarre reason last week's winner Bubba Watson drifted right out yesterday and I managed to get a very small bet matched at [42.0], and I couldn't resist the [60.0] available on Ben Crane.

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