The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 10 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Steve's got a couple of big priced picks in contention in Spain, but what's the plan now?

“Considering Sergio’s opposition and his impressive record in his homeland, even given his propensity to wobble in the mix, he almost looks a fair enough price for a change. But I couldn’t possibly back him, especially after his recent woeful collapse at the Wyndham Championship.”

With no strong fancies at this week's Race to Dubai event, the Madrid Masters, I wasn't really expecting too much, but I've been pleasantly surprised.

Marcel Siem, backed at [230.0], has started well enough, shooting a halfway tally of nine under par to sit four off the lead, held jointly by David Drysdale and pre-event favourite Sergio Garcia. Even more pleasing was the start of Jorge Campillo, backed at [240.0], who currently sits just two off the lead.

It's a bit frustrating that Sergio Garcia has started so well though, as it's stopped me laying anything back just yet. Garcia is understandably a short price and has been since day one, so consequently my two are still trading at fairly big prices. As is everyone else, so is there any value anywhere? Or is Sergio a good thing?

It's an interesting halfway leaderboard, right up there are a number of players that have been in form for a while now and that are arguably due a victory. Indeed, so strong is Ross McGowan's recent form that I very nearly made him one of my pre-event picks, but I'd just felt [60.0] was a little short, given the way he'd collapsed when in with a shout in Switzerland recently. And his horrific four-putt on the 16th yesterday showed that maybe I was right to swerve him.

As well as Drysdale and McGowan, others up there are also looking for that illusive maiden win on Tour. Gary Murphy, Michael Lorenzo-Vera and Danny Willet are also still winless, while it's been a very long time since any of the others up there have won.

Emanuele Canonica's one and only win was over four years ago now and he's been in the wilderness ever since. While Anthony Wall's sole win, the weather shortened 54 hole Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek, was nearly ten years ago now.

I've had a couple of in-running plays, a small bet on Alvaro Quiros at [100.0], as he started to move forward yesterday, and a marginally bigger punt on Irishman Shane Lowry at [70.0] last night. His 63 yesterday was the first sign of any real form since his home win back in May. It's hard to back up a low round but at least he's a winner!

So it's fair to say Sergio's opposition isn't the strongest at this stage and when I checked his record when leading or tied for the lead at halfway it wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. Garcia's led or been tied 15 times after 36 holes and has converted six times. Considering his opposition and his impressive record in his homeland, even given his propensity to wobble in the mix, he almost looks a fair enough price for a change. But I couldn't possibly back him, especially after his recent woeful collapse at the Wyndham Championship.

He certainly won't be able to let up, the scoring has been ridiculously low, with the course already yielding five rounds under 65 already and my plan will be to watch closely, particularly tomorrow, for a fast closer, a la Raphael Cabrera-Bello in Austria a few weeks ago.

I'll also look to get something out of Siem and Campillo, and if Sergio romps to victory so be it. There's always next week.

The Presidents Cup looks to be ever so slowly creeping the way of the US Team, who lead 6 ½ to 5 ½, so my bet on the International Team at [3.75] looks in jeopardy, but today's a big day with a lot of points up for grabs so I certainly haven't given it up just yet.

Ernie Els, who I backed at [8.8] to be the Top International point scorer, has two points from two matches, so I've still got a chance of making a profit on the event even if the US do win. As always, whatever the weekend brings I'll post a review on Monday.

Tags: Alvaro Quiros, Anthony Wall, Danny Willet Emanuele Canonica, David Drysdale, Ernie Els, Gary Murphy, Jorge Campillo, Madrid Masters, Marcel Siem, Michael Lorenzo-Vera, Presidents Cup, Race to Dubai, Raphael Cabrera-Bello, Ross McGowan, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, Wyndham Championship