The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 19 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Steve's had a disappointing morning, as several huge-priced picks come up shy in India. Can Lefty ease the pain?

12.20 - February 19, 2012

My morning started brilliantly, with Jose Manuel Lara, backed before the off at [160.0], birdying four of the first six holes to hit the front at the Avantha Masters. At around 7.30am, I had four players in the first five on the leaderboard, with eventual winner Jbe Kruger the only fly in the ointment. I was very confident of a great result.

Kruger, prior to today, had an appalling in-contention record and I was only mildly concerned by his presence amongst all my picks. I toyed with laying off Lara at around [3.0] and I pondered backing Kruger at around [4.0] but I just couldn't make myself do either. I just didn't fancy the diminutive South African but it was a mistake, this flaky leopard changed his spots and turned into a Tiger, just as all four of mine, one by one, flopped badly.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat looked likely to post an impressive target at one point but he finished weakly, bogeying the 16th and 17th and three-putting the last. Andrea Pavan missed a tiny par putt on the 10th before finding water on the 11th. Jorge Campillo (who finished runner-up, beaten by two) just ran out of steam, playing the last eight holes in level par, after playing the first ten in five under! And finally, my last man standing, Lara, limped home from the 8th hole onwards - failing to birdie a single hole and making bogeys at both the 13th and 18th hole. It was a multiple pile-up!

I wondered whether I'd called it badly wrong and checked the winner's in-contention record yet again, and it's made me feel a tiny bit better. I'm still very surprised how well he stood up to the pressure and there was certainly nothing in his past results to suggest he was up to it. I think he was helped by the clear water gifted by all of his competitors and by the time he did start to wobble it was all too late.

I just have to take it on the chin and move on but it's not easy.

At the Northern Trust Open, Phil Mickelson, for the second day in-a-row, was a long way of his glorious best but he still hasn't been headed. He'll start round four tied with his good friend Keegan Bradley, with a bunch of classy types just one and two shots further back.

If he finds his game he'll still take the world of beating. If he doesn't find it, he's going to need an awful lot of luck and some poor performances from some in-form quality players. I may get defending champ, Aaron Baddeley, onside or I may just see how the final round develops. At [15.0], Baddeley looks very fairly priced, and as I pointed out in my preview, multiple winners here are far from a rarity.

I'm off to the pub now for lunch and a pint or three. I've got my fingers crossed for a vintage Lefty display later but I won't hold my breath. If the day continues in the manner it's started so far, he's up against it!

I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief.

13:10 - February 18, 2012

I'll start with the Northern Trust Open, where Phil Mickelson still leads.

I got back from the gym yesterday to find my internet not working so if I wanted to trade I couldn't anyway! All I could do was get updates on my phone and I spent most of the early evening dreading a Mickelson meltdown that mercifully didn't materialise.

He didn't play as well as he had on Thursday but a hole-out eagle from the fairway on the 8th tidied things up somewhat and he leads Pat Perez by one and a group of five players by two. Of my other picks, KJ Choi started awfully but recovered well to shoot level par and he now trails Lefty by four but Fred Couples had a nightmare of a round and he misses the cut.

I tried hard to watch last night but with Lefty already in the house, Choi going backwards and the coverage dire, I gave up. But just before I did they showed a quite remarkable stat. Mickelson has won seven of the last eight times he's led on day one and he's won on the last six instances! Impressive indeed, but it does only apply to PGA Tour events...he was tied for the lead at the 2007 Scottish Open before losing a playoff to Gregory Havret. Even so, those taking him on at more than [3.0] could be up against it.

I'm not sure what time he tees off this evening because darkness again stopped play yesterday and round two needs to be completed before the tee times are set. I still haven't made any in-play backs or lays but that may well change tonight.

I got up nice and early this morning to watch the third round of the Avantha Masters and experienced mixed fortunes. Kiradech Aphibarnrat appeared to be my only pre-event bet with a chance but he had a terrible day. Once again he reacted poorly to being in the thick of it and I'm going off him quite fast. He's one hell of a talent but he's as infuriating as he is gifted.

Aphibarnrat's gone but he's been replaced on the leaderboard by one pre-event pick and one in-running play. Spain's Jose Manuel Lara shot an eight under par 64 and he's climbed all the way up into a tie for 5th, alongside Andrea Pavan, who shot 67.

I'd already backed Pavan after day one but I found cause to add to that wager this morning. I've noticed that the European Tour leaderboard has been slow to update this week (not a new phenomenon by any means) but if you click on the individual player, you can often see the score for their latest hole on their individual scorecard, before the main leaderboard updates. I languidly clicked on Pavan's name after he'd played 14 holes, dreamily thinking if he made three birdies coming in he'd still have a very slim chance, when boom, there it was, a little orange 2. He'd eagled the 15th. I didn't hang about and I gobbled up all the [90.0] available.

Then as his group played the final hole, the commentator nonchalantly mentioned that Pavan had a putt for eagle so I nibbled up all the bits down to [60.0]. A minute later he'd drained his second eagle in four holes and he now enters tomorrow's final round trailing new leader Jbe Kruger by just two strokes.

Remarkably, he still trades at [40.0] and I'm just going to go for it with him. That price is wrong by at least ten points. With two wins on the Challenge Tour last year, finishing second in the rankings, Pavan is an improving young player and on what is as open a final round leaderboard as you'll ever see; he has as good a chance as any.

Pre-event pick Lara, also two off the lead, now trades at [22.0] and I'm going to let him roll too.

European Tour maiden Kruger, on -11, leads by one from Peter Whiteford, Jean-Baptiste Gonnet (also maidens) and Marcel Siem - who has just one title to his name after 271 European Tour starts. Paul McGinley, Marc Warren, Marcus Fraser and Prom Meesawat are all alongside my pair on -9 and you can't discount anyone within five or six.

Although winners here have always been within one with a round to go, I can easily see someone from the pack shooting a 64 or 63 and posting a number that nobody can reach. I wouldn't even want to begin to try and guess who's going to win this one but I will be looking to trade in-running tomorrow and I'll be back after it's all over to take a look at the state of play at the Northern Trust with a round to go. Unless Pavan wins that is, because should that happen I may just get very drunk!

12:45 - February 17 2012

I've had a slow start to the year on the European Tour and it looks as though that's going to continue. Of my numerous pre-event picks, I do have Kiradech Aphibarnrat trailing halfway leader, Peter Whiteford, by three shots, thanks to a fast finish to his second round but considering I picked out eight from the off, it's a poor start really. Only four have made the cut and only Aphibarnrat looks to hold any chance.

Not only have I struggled with my original bets, I've also made a mess of in-running plays to date. I backed Andrea Pavan after round one but he shot a lacklustre one under par 71 today and I also backed defending champ, SSP Chowrasia, during round one, and he's only just made the cut. I'd backed Chowrasia at a big price when he won the inaugural staging of the event and I was cursing not backing him last year when he won again at a big price, so when he started to make a bit of a move on day one I thought I better get him onside. And I felt the same way about 2010 winner, Andrew Dodt. He too had been a pick when he won and I'd looked at backing him before the off. Instead, I ploughed in at a much shorter price in-running, very shrewd!

Infuriatingly, Sky Sports are continuing with their ridiculous method of covering play in the East over the first two days. Instead of showing the afternoon starters live for four hours, some numpty has decided it's better to show a couple of hours of recorded morning play first! Nevertheless, I have been watching and by far the most noteworthy performance has come from promising Dane, Thorbjørn Olesen...

I'm in agreement with Mike Norman and Paul Krishnamurty and many other very good judges that Olesen is worth following. He looks like a potentially top-class player but his finish to his round today was poor to say the very least. After a brilliant start to his round (bogey-free and six under through ten), from a good position after two shots, he failed to birdie the par five 14th. He then bogeyed the 15th, birdied the 16th and made a complete pig's ear of the 17th. Playing a six iron off the tee for safety, he found water and compounded that with a poor approach and an even worse pitch. He went on to birdie the last but that was a worrying little spell so early in the event.

This looks as hard now as it did before the off and I'm going to wait until tomorrow now.

So far, all this year's winnings have come from across the pond. If I'm to make a profit this week it looks likely to come from the US again. Last week's hero, Phil Mickelson, appears to have picked up from where he left off and he leads the Northern Trust Open by one over J B Holmes and Hunter Mahan -though he did have something of a scruffy finish to his round, missing a couple of times from seven feet and needing a chip in on the last to tidy up his card.

My other two picks, KJ Choi and Fred Couples have both started well enough too. On -2, Choi trails Lefty by three strokes and Couples is a further shot back on -1.

Lefty is due to tee off at 15:27 UK time and the PGA Tour website states that the second round will start as scheduled - even though they didn't get the first round finished yesterday and that plenty of players need to finish off. I haven't done any laying back at all yet but if he starts well today, I may well look to get my stakes back. If they do start on time I'll still be at the gym, pounding the treadmill. Hopefully Phil will be pounding the fairways and greens at the same time, I don't want to get home and find he's lost his way. I know, I know, ominous thing to write. Fingers are firmly crossed.

Avantha Masters Selections
Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ an average of [50.0]
Prayad Marksaeng @ [60.0]
Richard Finch @ [65.0]
Thaworn Wiratchant [80.0]
Tetsuji Hiratsuka [90.0]
Jose Manuel Lara [160.0]
Jorge Campillo [180.0]
Daisuke Kataoka [250.0]

In-running plays:
Andrea Pavan @ an average of [95.0]
SSP Chowrasia @ [65.0]
Andrew Dodt @ [50.0]

AT & T Pebble Beach National Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [11.5]
K.J Choi @ [40.0]
Fred Couples @ an average of [160.0]

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