The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 10 January 2009 /

To lay or not to lay, that is the question. So far, it's not been the greatest start to Steve's golf betting in 2009.

It's not been a sensational start to the year so far. The best of my picks at the Joburg Open on day one was massive outsider Edoardo Molinari, who ended round one in a tie for fourth but then managed to slip gentle down the leaderboard to a tie for 13th by the end of the second round, five shots off the lead.

After a tepid day one on the tougher East Course, pre-event favourites Retief Goosen and Richard Sterne made hay in the morning sun on the West Course and after Sterne birdied the 16th to get to six under par for the day and the for the tournament I backed him at [15.0]. Unfortunately for me, he dropped a shot at the last and understandably drifted as a result, while Goosen ruined a good day's work when he made a complete mess of the 18th and crashed down the leaderboard after a double bogey.

When the afternoons play, which was interrupted by storms, didn't produce a strong leaderboard and Sterne's price contracted back again I layed him back at an average of [13.5], which I felt was too short given he was six shots off the lead.

I spent plenty of time studying the state of play last night and after much deliberation I didn't make another bet. This morning I backed Charl Schwartzel at [26.0] after he got to -8 through eight holes, whether that proves to be a wise move or not time will tell but at the time of writing it looks OK.

I still rate the chances of Sterne and also Spain's Rafael Cabrera Bello and I'll be monitoring their progress very closely this morning waiting to make a further strike.

The halfway leader was David Drysdale on -11, and the overnight favourite was Andrew McLardy who's two off the lead. Both aren't players that I can begin to think about trusting over the weekend and don't appeal to me at all.

Those that backed Michael Hoey or Danny Willett, who's yet another great pick for Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner column, will be on good terms with themselves but I cant commit to either at the prices they are now, given they haven't proven themselves in contention at this level yet.

At the Mercedes-Benz tournament confidence in my sole pick, Vijay Singh, was tempered before he'd even teed off when I read he'd withdrawn from next week's Hawaiian Open in order to have surgery on his knee, a torn meniscus apparently.

It wasn't great news, and nor was his double bogey on the very first hole. He did manage to get those lost shots back by the end of the day, but he was six off the lead held by Geoff Ogilvy.

A three putt bogey on the 1st set the tone for day two and another level par round has played him out of the event. It's all very frustrating as he incurred his injury when he won the Chevron World Challenge but didn't reveal it until Wednesday this week. I guess I could have layed him back on the news and shrewder punters did but I didn't so time to move on.

Now on -11, Ogilvy still leads the event, by one over DJ Trahan, two over Ernie Els and by four shots over a host of players. He's already traded odds-on and should perhaps have been further clear by now, his pursuers and layers grateful he only played the back nine yesterday in level par.

I'm still smarting from backing Singh and don't want to compound the error by lumping on someone else at this stage. I'm not a massive Ogilvy fan and feel he's not the ideal candidate for a wire-to-wire win and I can't trust Els after his South African Open hiatus in round three either.

I'm tempted by Trahan at a fair enough price of around [9.0] and of those on -7, Anthony Kim makes most appeal but looks plenty short enough.

So nothing done yet bar for a small interest in Adam Scott at [34.0] who has some decent form around here, five shots off the lead on -6 he was a fair price for small stakes.

I've been very tempted to lay Ogilvy and Els but I'm happy just to take my medicine with Singh and wait for another week. It's easy to go mad after the break and end up staking too much and I don't want to do that, if I lose this week so be it.

As for the Royal Trophy, thankfully I didn't get involved; it looks like Asia are set to win it for the first time.

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