The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 16 May 2009 /

Tough conditions for those with early tee times means a huge advantage for players going out in the afternoon at the Irish Open. Could the Punter's picks capitalise? Meanwhile, in Texas, Justin Leonard is out to peg back Paul Goydos.

The third round of the Irish Open is already underway as play has been brought forward because of forecast bad weather. Whether that forecast is accurate or not is another matter, it wasn't right yesterday and those with an afternoon tee-time enjoyed very favourable conditions as a result.

There's often an imbalance during the first two rounds of any links tournament but it was particularly tough on those drawn to go out early yesterday. The forecast had been so bad some of the tees were moved forward but when the wind unexpectedly disappeared at lunchtime the course was rendered defenceless.

Fortunately, seven of my 10 picks had the favourable draw; disappointingly, none of them took advantage of it. The best of my original picks after round two were Stephen Dodd and Raphael Jacquelin, but they started today eight off the lead.

I'd held off from adding to my bets until lunchtime yesterday but as it became clear that the afternoon starters had such a massive advantage I set about sniffing out some value and when Marc Warren birdied the 10th (the first hole of his round) I backed him at an average of [95.0]. Twenty minutes later he'd made a complete mess of the 11th, making a quadruple bogey eight! My luck wasn't changing for the better...

I did also back Thomas Levet though, after he'd also birdied his first hole, at [20.0], and he fared somewhat better. He ended up shooting 66, reaching 11 under par and for a while he even held a share of the lead, but at the completion of round two the star of the show was 22 year-old Irish amateur Shane Lowry.

His nerveless 62 saw him reach a whopping 15 under to take a two shot lead from Robert Rock and Jamie Donaldson, leaving me completely flummoxed as to how the event will pan out. With the weather still such an unknown the tournament's wide open and sure to be entertaining but the likely winner remains something of a mystery.

I got off to a great start at the Texas Open. My three Johnson's - Richard, Dustin and Zach all disappointed but Justin Leonard ended the day atop the leaderboard, alongside Paul Goydos.

With a morning tee-time yesterday, I had hoped that Leonard would kick on and when he reached two under par through six holes and traded as low as [2.84] it was looking good, but, as befits my current run of luck, Justin slammed the brakes on and bumbled his way in, making birdies and bogeys in equal measure.

I had my eye on afternoon starter Stephen Ames, after his first round 66 had left him three off the lead, and when Leonard failed to kick on I put in a bet for him at [28.0]. I could have taken plenty at around [25.0] but greed had gotten the better of me and I didn't get matched before he teed off.

When he birdied the first two holes it looked like I'd missed the boat. Then after he'd played nine holes in four under I eventually backed him, merely to cover stakes, at just [8.2], which is almost the lowest price he's been! But a lacklustre one over par second nine holes saw him drift considerably and I went in again at [22.0]. So I now have a decent bet at an average of nearly [17.0].

Paul Goydos will take a three shot lead into today's third round and if he goes low again he could take some pegging back but I'm hopeful that Leonard can get back on track. Ames can make ground up particularly swiftly if he gets the right head on and even Zach Johnson, seven back, isn't a completely forlorn hope.

I'd love to be writing that I'm going into the weekend overflowing with confidence and in a really strong position but yet again that simply isn't the case - whatever happens I'll review both events on Monday.

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