The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 04 April 2009 /

It's windy, windy, windy at the two main events in the golf world this weekend, but with five players in the top-14 at Estoril, Steve Rawlings is confident he won't be blown away before Sunday...

I threw enough darts at the Estoril Open, with nine selections, but the tactics have been validated. A few missed the board completely and none are yet cast-iron bulls-eyes but five of my motley crew are in the top 14 at halfway, a far better outcome than I could have hoped for.

It could have been a fair bit better though, Steve Webster; the shortest priced of mine at [50.0], hit the front at one point, traded as low as [5.1], but then came home in an ambulance - dropping four shots in his last seven holes.

It was a similar story for the longest priced selection, Daniel Vancsik, backed at [350.0]. He too hit the front, and even put two shots between himself and the field at one point but he also dropped shots coming in and is now a much bigger price than he has been.

It's fair to say I've already had opportunities to have gotten something out of the event but I wasn't really on the ball yesterday. We've come away for the weekend, so yesterday was spent packing and then last night driving for five hours. Not entirely conducive with smart trading!

In fact the only bet I've had since either event began this week was a little top up on Paul Broadhurst at [230.0], after his first round, and he would be by far my best result but there's a very long way to go. The way last week's event panned out illustrated that it can be complete folly to spend too much time studying the halfway leaderboard and like last week this is a very tough event to call, with a confusing and open look to it. But with a fair wind, and there's plenty of that at the Oitavos Dunes course this week, I'd like to think a couple of mine will hang tough until tomorrow at least, so for now I've done nothing.

The winds in Portugal are the faintest of zephyrs compared with the gales that were blowing in Houston, Texas, on Thursday. It was so bad that play was eventually suspended with winds reaching 45 miles an hour and with balls moving on the greens.
Play had already been delayed by two-and-a-half hours due to storms so when play halted after just a few hours nobody had completed round one and half the field were yet to start.

I haven't seen a shot played there but already most of mine are out with the washing. Only Stuart Appleby is in touch, on six under par with four holes to play of his second round, and he's just two off the lead.

The tournament has a very disjointed look about it with some players having finished their second rounds, while others haven't even started theirs. I see Geoff Ogilvy has already traded as low as [2.32] before he started dropping shots like confetti. He's still tied for the lead and the strong favourite but I couldn't back him. For some reason I never get him right and if the truth be told I simply don't trust him very much.

Current second favourite and also tied for the lead is Paul Casey but I feel much the same about him. Anyone who's backed either player for next week will be on good terms with themselves though, and will be feeling better than Mickelson backers. Lefty was out in the worst of the weather on Thursday and ended his first round on five over par so at least it looks like he'll get a few extra days rest before Augusta.

As I haven't seen any play and given my main pick is still on the fringe of things I'm letting this one roll for now too.

So its fingers and toes crossed for this afternoon, when hopefully one or two of my fantastic five can forge further on.

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