The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 04 July 2009 / Leave a comment

The Tiger's taken control of the AT&T National and Steve's happy to let him get on with it. Away from that, he's focusing all his efforts on the Open de France

Thursday morning started off very nicely. My main pick at the Open de France, Ian Poulter, was cruising along, a couple under par, and Martin Kaymer, backed at [34.0], was making birdies at will, after starting his round with a bogey.

Poulter was soon out of it though; two visits to the water on the 18th hole, his ninth of the round, resulted in an ugly triple bogey which saw him tumbling down the leaderboard, never to been seen again.

No such woes for Kaymer, he putted superbly and had forged three clear by the end of day one - shooting a course record equalling 62.

I didn't completely rest on my laurels after Kaymer's morning round though and set about adding to my armoury in the afternoon; backing Francesco Molinari at an average of [40.0] after he'd made a fast start. He boasts a bit of form here and coming off a very decent 27th place in the US Open, I'd looked at him before the off but thought he was just a tad short.

He made a few more birdies after I'd backed him on Thursday and started round two well yesterday. Indeed, it looked like a decent bet until his last hole, when he triple-bogeyed the 9th!

I added to the portfolio again yesterday morning, backing Steve Webster at [80.0], after he'd reached four under par through ten holes and was six under for the event and three off Kramer's first round tally. Mercifully he continued to play well and picked up a couple more shots. He's now just two behind halfway leader Rafa Echenique's total of ten under par.

Kaymer's second round was nowhere near as good as his first, in fact it was ten strokes worse and his one over par 72 leaves him two shots shy of Echenique also. Thankfully I'd layed a little bit back at [2.42] before he'd teed off yesterday lunchtime. His price had contracted all morning from about [4.0], after none of the morning starters had been able to reach his first round total.

As it stands now, with a two shot lead, Echenique looks pretty strong, and he's clearly held his form well after last Sundays fast finishing second place behind Nick Dougherty. His performance so far is reminiscent of last year's winner Pablo Larrazabal and it wouldn't be the biggest shock if he kept his nose in front.

The other player in a tie for second alongside my two picks is Charl Schwartzel, but I just don't trust the erratic South African. Richard Green and Peter Hanson are a further shot back on -7 but they too are players that seem to do their level best not to be in front when it matters.

Winners at Le Golf National don't usually come from too far back on the weekend and the vast majority of winners are leading with a round to go, so I fancy the winner will come from the front four. I'm very wary of Echenique but he's still a rookie. I may be being a bit greedy but I've now backed Kaymer again. I think he's a very fair price at around [5.6]. Yesterday's lacklustre effort wasn't a surprise - it's never easy backing up a really low round and I can see him getting back in the groove today.

In the states, Tiger Woods has taken charge of the AT & T National and I'm just going to let him get on with it.

I've not added to my initial picks and I doubt I will now. Woods is going to be very hard to beat from here but wading in at around [1.40] really isn't my thing.

Instead of taking the odds on about Woods or desperately seeking alternatives, I'm going to give myself a Saturday and Sunday night off. I'll take a look again after round three and see how the land lies but I suspect I've done all the trading I'm going to there and I'm quite happy to accept a very small loss on the event.

So I'll be focusing all my efforts on the Open de France this weekend and I'll review how fruitful those efforts have been on Monday.