The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 March 2009 /

The Punter on why things are looking better for him in Spain with picks Jimenez and Siem in contention than on the other side of the pond, where he expects Woods and O'Hair to get the better of his selections.

Thursday was a shocking day - most of my selections were poor and some were downright awful.

At the Open de Andalucia, Thomas Aiken and Miles Tunnicliff fared the best, both finishing the day on two under par, four off the lead. My other picks all looked like they'd struggle to make the cut!

Best of mine at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was Kenny Perry, who ended his round on level par, but that was very disappointing considering he'd been three under with four to play.

The story of the day was Tiger Woods, who was back with a bang. His driving was atrocious but his scrambling and putting were magnificent and he ground out a very impressive two under par 68 and touched [2.0]. He's now [3.05].

I added to my portfolio by backing Chad Campbell at the end of round one at [42.0], after he too shot 68.

I made my first in running move in Spain yesterday morning, and a somewhat premature move it was too. As Marcel Siem's round came to a close I backed him several times in bits and pieces, at an average of just under [7.0]. When he led at one point by four strokes it didn't look a bad move but then he bogeyed the last and a couple of late starters closed the gap further. He still holds the lead by one and at around [9.0] looks a fair price. He'll make bogeys for sure but if he keeps hitting fairways like he has over the first two days I think he'll go very close.

He's not my only chance now though; Miguel Angel Jimenez followed an appalling first round 74 with an impressive 65 and is now just four shots off Siem's lead.

A player I've backed many times, and with plenty of success, is Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano. I'd put a bet in at [50.0] on him before the off but it didn't get matched - he's a big danger now and I may well look to pounce on him at some point. But other than that I really don't fancy anyone else up there. It's a tight and tough to fathom leaderboard and an event that makes today's Lincoln look like a very simple puzzle.

At the Arnold Palmer yesterday Tiger picked up where he'd left off and chipped in for birdie on his first hole, but he was again sloppy off the tee and was still reliant on a sharp short game. He ended the day at three under par and according to the betting is the man to beat. He's now the [3.05] fav.

As far as my bets were concerned it was a frustrating second day. Someone must have told Chad Campbell I'd backed him and he lost the plot, Ben Crane fared best and even got to three under par with three to play but then bogeyed the next two holes and Perry did much the same.

I sat and watched Sean O'Hair play superb golf to take a healthy lead but I just couldn't take the plunge on him. He was soon trading at around [5.0] after birdying his first three holes and his price gently contracted after that. He looked very solid throughout the round until he bogeyed the last and I was very tempted to go in then when an over reaction saw him spike to [4.3]. But still I couldn't commit.

He's a fantastic player, looks as cool as a cucumber, has a healthy three shot lead on a course where playing catch-up is very difficult but whenever I've backed him he's disappointed and even though second round leaders have a very good record here I'm prepared to let him go.

I still cant advocate backing Woods either though, he's ranked 92nd for driving accuracy so far this week and I just cant see any value in backing him at around [3.05] with five shots to make up.

In short it looks between the two but they both have too many negatives for me to wade in on either.

I have some hope though, in the shape of my ole mate Bob Allenby, who I backed at a generous [29.0] after he'd birdied the 12th. He's now one ahead of Tiger, three behind O'Hair and my only realistic chance.

It's been a poor week so far, with only Jimenez of my original picks in with any sort of a chance but there's a long way to go and I can still turn it around; I'll re-cap the weekend's events on Monday.

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