The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 05 February 2010 /

Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy are poised for a tilt at the title in Dubai, but does our man fancy their chances...

Thursday started somewhat better than it ended...When I got up at around 5.30am I was relieved to see Martin Kaymer, backed at [12.5], was under par at the Dubai Desert Classic, on a day when a mere cursory glance at the leaderboard showed that scoring was tough.

When Sky's coverage began it was evident that the young German was playing well and by the time he reached his final hole, the 9th, he was on three under par, right up with the pace and trading at under [7.0], but he hit a dreadful second shot that just failed to clear the water and he made double-bogey.

To make matters worse for my pick, the wind that had plagued the early starters gradually eased and by the time the afternoon starters were coming to the scoring back nine, it was almost non-existent.

My only other pick, Simon Dyson, burst out of the traps and was three under par through just five holes, but he's gradually dropped away since.

I had three further plays on day one; Jeev Milkha Singh was backed at [42.0] as he made four birdies around the turn. He's since slowed up a bit and is available at a much better price now and it's probably a bit too much to ask for him to win so soon after becoming a father last Friday, which is tremendous news after the tragedy he and his wife endured two years ago.

I also backed Thongchai Jaidee, at [75.0] - a far better wager. He was a pick last week in Qatar so he was on my radar; he's now available at considerably less and leads the field at halfway.

And finally, I took [17.0] about Alvaro Quiros as he ended the day on three under par, one behind the leaders - Rory McIlroy, Stephen Dodd, Eduardo Molinari and Charl Schwartzel.

In the States on day one, I messed about trading pre-event pick Phil Mickelson in-running. Backing him at [9.0] and laying him at just under [6.0], boosting my potential winnings with no additional cost. When tiredness overcame me, and with Lefty still having six to play, I thought about laying some back, but unfortunately I didn't.

Needless to say I was both cross with myself and gutted when I woke up to see he'd bogeyed three of his last four holes and was trading at around [18.0]. Oh well, we all make mistakes.

Day two in Dubai saw early starter and event favourite Rory McIlroy, bob along serenely for eight holes before bursting into life with four straight birdies. With just two feet for a fifth straight birdie on the par five third his price plummeted to just [2.5], but remarkably he somehow missed the putt. It must have rattled him because there were to be no more birdies, just a double bogey on nine - his final hole. He'd done exactly what Kaymer had done on day one.

Also playing in the morning, Quiros didn't play brilliantly, but he still managed to match his day one score, and is far from out of it.

Kaymer started off well enough until he got to the 9th, where yet again he went in to the water and double-bogeyed., he didn't play well all day and needs to buck his ideas up in round three. I had one more bet, backing Stephen Dodd at [80.0] after he'd played 11 holes. He'd started ok in Abu Dhabi a fortnight ago before food poisoning forced him to withdraw, so his performance here isn't a complete surprise. He's currently in the group tied for second.

Star of the show though was Lee Westwood, who shot 65 to close to within one of Jaidee's lead - his best ever round around the Emirates.

I have a few live chances going into the weekend and I'm particularly keen to oppose the market leaders, McIlroy and Westwood, neither of which I trust implicitly to get the job done. Quiros looks the value to me; his final round 64 last year shows what he's capable of achieving here.

As I write, day two is still in full flow in the States, where Lefty managed to shoot five under to give himself a chance. My only other pre-event pick, Fred Couples was up there for a while but a bogey, double-bogey run in the middle of his second round stopped him dead.

I've made one further play, backing first round leader Dustin Johnson at [8.2]. He's birdied the 1st and 4th to get to within one of new leader Steve Stricker, but with bad weather closing in, I doubt he'll get past the veteran.

As usual, I'll post my de-brief on Monday morning.

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