The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 May 2009 /

Steve is guaranteed a win at the European Tour's premier event, the only question is how big it will be...

After the shock of finally winning last week, following what's been a horrid run, I'm now going into this weekend knowing I won't lose this week and I guess I should be happy enough, but it could have been considerably better...

I seem to have read the BMW PGA Championship perfectly, with only the inaccurate weathermen throwing an annoying spanner in the works. Defending champion Miguel Angel Jimenez and in-form Dane, Soren Kjeldsen, were both firmly in my thoughts until I looked at the forecast but the prospect of three days of solid rain were enough for me to push them aside. There's not been a single drop however, and the pair of them are now sitting in a tie for second, very annoying.

That's the bad news... well some of it, I shouldn't grumble really but I will.

I backed the current leader, Paul Casey, at [17.5] before the off and when his approach shot went in for an eagle on the 13th yesterday he stretched his lead to four and plenty was matched at under [1.70]. Maybe I should have been hitting the pink button then but he was playing quite sublime golf and with two par fives to come, looked highly likely to extend his lead further, but instead he bogeyed the next hole, parred the next two, and then drove into the trees on the 17th! At which point I stepped in and layed him at [1.93], covering the week's stakes. He now leads by just two shots.

There had been more frustration in the morning when both Alvaro Quiros and Martin Kaymer, like Casey, also struggled over the last few holes. Both looked likely to finish in much stronger positions than they did but they seemed to lose their rhythm on the back nine and now have plenty to do to get involved on Sunday.

Another of my picks, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, had led on day one after shooting five under par, but he double bogeyed the first yesterday and went on to shoot five over, despite birdying the last two holes!

Anyway, that's more than enough moaning. There were other good news stories with my picks after all. Marc Warren starts today in the group of players in second place, two behind Casey, and I even topped up on him modestly at [80.0], after he'd birdied the third, and massive outsider Stephen Dodd is a further shot back on five under par, so hopes are high going into the final two rounds.

The biggest and saddest story in the golfing world this week was the news that Phil Mickelson's wife Amy has been diagnosed with breast cancer. Lefty withdrew from the Byron Nelson Championship and has suspended his schedule indefinitely while he supports his wife. I sincerely hope he'll be back soon enough and that Amy can make a full recovery.

I've not watched much of the US action - after six hours glued to the PGA at Wentworth on each of the last two days I've been a bit golfed out by the time the Texas event has hit the screen.

My main pick, Vijay Singh, was bobbling along nicely on day one until a double bogey on the par three 13th stopped him abruptly in his tracks - he took three putts from four feet! He did better yesterday shooting 67, but he's still five off the lead.
Rory Sabbatini and John Malinger head the field on eight under par with one of my picks, Dustin Johnson, just a shot behind.

It certainly looks a wide open event now and I can't imagine I've finished trading on it, but for now I'm quite hopeful of Johnson's chances and I haven't meddled with it just yet.

I'll review both events on Monday, by which time, hopefully, I would have gone from breaking even to making a decent profit.

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