The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 10 July 2009 /

It's been a disappointing start for Steve's picks, but after a bit of trading there's still hope of a profitable weekend and maybe a Kaymer encore

Thursday was something of a damp squib all round. My highlight at the Scottish Open was the performance of Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, whose six under par 65 was just one shot worse than first round leader Richard Green, but that was just about the only good news.

Alvaro Quiros, who I thought had shown signs of improvement last week, was dire. He birdied two of his first three holes and halved in price but was very poor after that and has comfortably missed the cut.

It was a frustrating first day at the John Deere Classic too. My main pick, Zach Johnson, bobbed along nicely and was on three under par when he reached the 4th hole, his 13th of the round, but he then three-putted, missing his par putt from under four feet! He ended the round on two under par and is five shots behind the leader, Lee Janzen.

More frustrating was the round of Chad Campbell - four under through just five holes and five under through 12, he was matched at a low of [8.0] at one point but he finished his round poorly, dropping a couple of shots, and is now only three under.

I made my first in-running move yesterday morning, backing last week's winner Martin Kaymer, at almost the shortest price he was all morning! Before the event started I'd pretty much dismissed his chances this week - when he'd won his two previous titles he performed very poorly the following week, missing the cut on both occasions and I pretty much expected the same again, but after shooting two under par on Thursday he started day two very well.

My timing was awful and I wasn't on the ball at all yesterday. I very nearly backed him at around [26.0] after he'd played six holes and was three under par for his round but I talked myself into being patient, knowing he was about to play three tough holes in 16, 17, & 18.

I was off doing stuff, determined to let things develop and not to jump the gun, but when I returned to the play I was pretty cheesed off. Playing the back nine first, Kaymer had made another two birdies and was in position A in the fairway on the par five 3rd hole, and of course, his price had collapsed. He then hit his approach wide of the green and into an awkward spot in the bunker - I thought he'd struggle to get down in two from where he was so I held off. He then played a sublime bunker shot and made birdie!

As he played the 4th hole I backed him at an average of [11.0] and then he proceeded to bogey the 5th! Sometimes you just get it wrong, very wrong. He drifted out to as big as [20.0] at one point after his round and I traded in and out a few times and now have him at an average of just over [13.0].

In addition to Kaymer, I've also backed American, Nick Watney (pictured) at [26.0]. He finished his second round a further shot back of Kaymer on seven under, which is four off the lead, held by Retief Goosen.

As for Gonzo.....He started ok yesterday, but then his poor putting took over and it seemed like every time Sky showed him he was jabbing a four or five footer wide of the hole. He did recover a bit of lost ground at the end though and sits alongside Watney on seven under, but I really can't see how he can win anything putting that poorly.

I'm happy with Watney and Kaymer, despite the German saying he was feeling tired after round two. I want to be against Goosen again as I really don't trust him in the mix, and the second placed player, Adam Scott, has been woefully out of form for ages and could well be a bit rusty in contention.

In America, the story of day two was the weather. Not a single ball was hit thanks to persistent rain, and round two will be played today. They'll then cut to just 60 and try and play 36 holes on Sunday. The Tournament Director, Arvin Ginn, said that a Monday finish was a possibility, so if you were intending to back anyone playing in Illinois this week for next week's Open Championship, I'd hang on a day or two.

Hopefully they will get finished on Sunday and I'll post a review of both events on Monday.

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